3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 8/6/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+210)
If the Oakland Athletics don't hit multiple home runs tonight I'm going to be shocked.
I would be shocked due to the fact they are going up against Mike Foltynewicz, who is allowing 2.66 HR/9 to left-handed hitters and 2.39 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. Folty is allowing a 48.8% fly-ball rate, a 41.5% hard-contact rate, and an 18.3% HR/FB ratio versus lefties this season. Foltynewicz has allowed 19 home runs in his last 10 starts, so this is absolutely a pitcher you want to be targeting tonight.
Matt Olson comes in with a solid .244 ISO, a 141 wRC+, a 43.7% fly-ball rate, and a 39.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season -- all elite numbers. Olson has crushed right-handed pitchers all season and this couldn't be a better spot for him and his teammates.
Cal Quantrill Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+122)
With his strikeout rate trending up, Cal Quantrill's strikeout prop is worth considering tonight.
Quantrill has a 16.8% strikeout for the entire season but he has flashed a higher upside since the All-Star break. Quantrill has started four games since the break and has posted a 21.7% strikeout rate or higher in three of those starts. This is an encouraging sign and that has led to him posting five strikeouts or more in those three starts.
This puts him in a great spot tonight since he is taking on the Detroit Tigers, who come in with a 25.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is the second-worst in the league. Quantrill's strikeout prop (4.5) is rather modest tonight given his recent trend upward and the very easy matchup in front of him.
Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+320)
The Houston Astros are primed for a big game tonight versus Bailey Ober.
It shouldn't come as a surprise but the Astros' offense is in a spot to see multiple players go deep tonight. They will be taking on Bailey Ober, who is struggling in his first year in the MLB, but it presents an opening to attack for some home run props. This season, Ober is allowing 2.42 HR/9 to lefties, as well as a 5.06 xFIP, a 43.9% fly-ball rate, and a 36.8% hard-contact rate. With stats like those, facing the Astros' lineup presents a massive amount of danger for Ober.
We turn to Kyle Tucker, who has hit 14 of his 21 home runs off of right-handed pitchers this season, something that should continue tonight. That is due to his .275 ISO, a 45.3% fly-ball rate, and a 38.3% hard-contact rate versus righties. Between Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, one of the lefties on the Astros is going deep tonight.
