FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 8/13/21

We've got a solid batch of pitchers on Friday's 14-game slate, and there are arguably fewer gimme matchups for opposing offenses than we might expect on a slate this size. One stack stands out above all the others, though, so it could be a matter of deciding whether you want to roll with the chalk or not.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Robbie Ray ($10,700): Ray continues to enjoy perhaps the best campaign of his career, boasting a 3.39 SIERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate. After having to face Boston in three of his last four starts, Ray gets a much easier task against Seattle tonight. The Mariners check in with a 94 wRC+ and 26.2% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching. Ray has also cracked 100 pitches in five of his last seven starts, so workload is never a concern when he's pitching well, too. His 16 quality starts are tied for the third-most this season.

Zack Wheeler ($11,200): Wheeler has a less-than-stellar matchup against the Reds and owns the highest salary of the slate, but few have been as consistent as him in 2021. Wheeler's averaging a slate-best 42 FanDuel points per game and is coming off a complete-game shutout against the Mets, which earned him a ridiculous 70 points. Routinely pitching deep into games, Wheeler leads the league in innings pitched and has logged seven or more in six of his last eight starts. In fact, that volume has also helped him accumulate the league's most strikeouts, too. Despite the tougher matchup, Cincinnati's only showing a 3.79 implied total.

Charlie Morton ($9,000): The post-trade deadline Nationals are pretty much Juan Soto and not much else, so we should feel comfortable rolling with Morton against them. The veteran right-hander is sporting a rock-solid 3.68 SIERA and 27.9% strikeout rate, and he keeps the ball on the ground at a decent clip (47.3% ground-ball rate), which helps him avoid home runs. His workload isn't quite as bankable as Ray or Wheeler, but that hasn't prevented him from logging quality starts in five of his last six outings.

Others to Consider: Blake Snell ($9,000), Adbert Alzolay ($6,700)

Stacks

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox ought to be tonight's most popular stack, as their 6.29 implied total is over a full run higher than any other team. That said, it's going to be hard to fade them against Spenser Watkins, who's pitched far worse than his 4.22 ERA would indicate. Watkins has only managed a 5.18 SIERA and 16.2% strikeout rate across 32 innings, and he also induces ground balls just 36.0% of the time. Throw in a Triple-A xFIP well over 5.00 both this year and in 2019, and there's little to suggest Watkins should be in a big league rotation.

The right-hander actually owns worse splits in same-sided matchups (5.89 xFIP and 12.3% strikeout rate), so we can feel even better about rostering sluggers like J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Xander Bogaerts ($3,600), and Hunter Renfroe ($3,300). There isn't anything notable about Watkins' lefty splits, either, so Rafael Devers ($4,400) is easy to like, as well.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers have scored double-digit runs in back-to-back games, and they have a great opportunity to keep the momentum going in a plum spot versus Mitch Keller. Note that this is probably the diciest game in terms of weather, though, so keep that in mind.

Keller is another guy whose underlying numbers show little promise, but in his case, the result has been an egregious 7.07 ERA and 1.81 WHIP across his 14 starts. It's hard to expect a massive turnaround when you're displaying a 5.09 SIERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 12.0% walk rate, and 36.5% ground-ball rate.

Against lefties, Keller has posted a terrible 5.78 xFIP, so that's a green light for Eduardo Escobar ($3,700), Christian Yelich ($3,500), Kolten Wong ($3,200), and Omar Narvaez ($3,100). Keller manages to get more strikeouts versus righties, but he still gives up dingers in the split, so Willy Adames ($3,300) and Avisail Garcia ($3,300) are also perfectly fine options.

Toronto Blue Jays: While Chris Flexen has actually posted some pretty good results this year, his underlying numbers suggest he shouldn't have a sub-4.00 ERA. Against right-handed pitching, he's put up a middling 4.85 xFIP, 15.0% strikeout rate, and 42.7% ground-ball rate.

That sets things up nicely for all the right-handed power in this Blue Jays lineup between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,600), George Springer ($4,300), Marcus Semien ($4,000), Bo Bichette ($3,900), and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,500). Lourdes Gurriel ($2,700) and Randal Grichuk ($2,500) are solid values if they start.

Others to Consider: Tampa Bay Rays, San Diego Padres, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers