MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 8/17/21

On a slate with some top-notch offenses in great spots, should we roster a low-salaried Logan Webb to open up cap space? Check out which pitchers and stacks we should prioritize tonight.

We've got a 14-gamer on our hands tonight, and this pitching slate gives us lots of flexibility. There's a clear-cut ace up top, but we can also find quality guys in the middle and value ranges to assist any number of stacking builds. And there will definitely be a strong temptation to save at pitcher, with another Coors Field game on tap, and elite offenses like the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Astros all displaying high implied totals in plus matchups.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Corbin Burnes ($11,500): Burnes is coming off a season-high 79 FanDuel points and 15 strikeouts against the depleted Cubs, and it marks the third time he's cracked 70 points in 2021. He now boasts a 2.81 SIERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, and 5.0% walk rate since the beginning of June, and the Cardinals aren't the type of team that should give him much trouble. While St. Louis isn't the best matchup for strikeouts, we're less worried about that when it comes to someone of Burnes' caliber, and they otherwise have been a below-average offense versus righties with a 91 wRC+. Some stacks might make it hard to fit in Burnes, but there's no question he's the night's top arm.

Alek Manoah ($9,900): Although Manoah technically has the third-highest salary on the board, he gives us a sizable $1,600 discount from Burnes. Manoah's also coming off a strong performance (57 FanDuel points; 11 strikeouts), and it's especially encouraging that he was allowed to log a season-high 114 pitches despite this being just his third start since returning from the injured list. For the year, he's turned in an encouraging 3.70 SIERA, 29.3% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate over 11 starts. It's easy to like his matchup against Washington, which has an active roster that carries a lackluster 84 wRC+ versus righties.

Logan Webb ($7,600): It's a bit surprising to see Webb's salary this low after posting 52 and 46 points in his last two starts, but we'll happily take those savings tonight against the Mets. Webb has an elite 60.2% ground-ball rate, so he rarely gives up home runs, and he still gets enough punchouts to be appealing in DFS off a 26.0% strikeout rate. Webb's 3.39 SIERA is also one of the best of the entire slate. New York is another team that's pretty meh versus right-handed pitching (89 wRC+), and they're only being credited with a 3.62 implied total.

Others to Consider: Adam Wainwright ($9,600), Sandy Alcantara ($8,600), Huascar Ynoa ($8,400)

Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers: Despite the Coors game carrying massive implied totals as expected, the Dodgers aren't far behind those teams with a healthy mark of 5.69. They're up against one of the night's weakest pitchers in Wil Crowe, who pretty much flops across the board in just about any relevant category. Against righties, he has a pedestrian 19.7% strikeout rate and 42.0% ground-ball rate while getting pummeled for 2.70 home runs per nine innings. Against lefties, it's not any better, with an ugly 5.19 xFIP and 14.7% walk rate.

So, yeah, we're going to want to have some Dodgers stacks tonight.

You won't find many weak links in this lineup, with Max Muncy ($3,600) being the top power bat (.285 ISO), and all of Trea Turner ($3,900), Justin Turner ($3,900), Will Smith ($3,500), Chris Taylor ($3,200), and A.J. Pollock ($3,000) have an ISO of .190 or better. Corey Seager ($3,200) falls below that threshold, but we know what he's capable of, and he remains well above-average in xSLG.

Houston Astros: The Astros also find themselves in an inviting matchup, taking on an overmatched Daniel Lynch. The young lefty has demonstrated an inability to handle righty sticks, as shown by a 5.10 xFIP and 16.9% strikeout rate. Throw in a 40.6% ground-ball rate, and he's ripe for some home runs, too.

Jose Altuve ($3,700) and Carlos Correa ($3,500) are the obvious headliners high in the order, and then Yuli Gurriel ($3,100), Aledmys Diaz ($2,700), and Chas McCormick ($2,300) provide us with some value righties. McCormick is especially intriguing at his salary, owning a .210 ISO and 12.3% barrel rate this year.

We barely have any sample for Lynch against lefties, but he performed poorly versus both sides of the plate in Triple-A, so there's little reason to avoid Yordan Alvarez ($3,900) if he's good to go tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays: As previously noted, the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies have the highest implied totals on the board, and obviously Coors Field is just about always in play. But it's also worth considering that their matchups aren't nearly as a good as yesterday, as German Marquez is going for the Rockies, and the Padres are rolling with a bullpen game. If both sides sound like they're going to be excessively popular, then it might be a reason to fade the game. On the other hand, if the public is less enthused with this spot, it could also mean taking a chance on grabbing Coors bats at lower roster percentages.

Regardless of how you handle the Coors game, the Blue Jays offer us another high-powered alternative in a plus spot. They face Erick Fedde, who's oddly improved many of his underlying numbers, yet has earned worse results this season. Still, against right-handed hitters, he holds a modest 22.8% strikeout rate, and his ground-ball rate has dipped to 46.0%.

That doesn't sound like enough to contain all the right-handed pop in this lineup, and Logan Webb provides us with an easy avenue to grab four of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,400), George Springer ($4,300), Marcus Semien ($4,000), Teoscar Hernandez ($3,800), and Bo Bichette ($3,700).

Additionally, it's not like Fedde has much going for him versus lefties (19.0% strikeout rate; 11.4% walk rate) outside of a higher ground-ball rate, so Corey Dickerson ($2,200) is a viable punt play if he starts.

Others to Consider: San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers