MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/23/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Yuli Gurriel To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Houston Astros are primed for a big offensive explosion tonight.

With plenty of power up and down their lineup, the Astros are in a spot to hit multiple home runs tonight versus Daniel Lynch. This season, Lynch is allowing 1.05 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and has posted a 5.03 xFIP, 36.0% fly-ball rate, and 37.8% hard-contact rate. With the Astros' ability to roll out several righty bats, expect them to be a popular option in both betting and DFS tonight.

Yulieski Gurriel comes in with a strong .255 ISO, 158 wRC+, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 31.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Ideally, we'd like to see the hard-contact rate a bit higher, but the fly balls Gurriel is generating in this split make him a threat to hit a home run any night.

Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)

With a strikeout prop of only 5.5, Lance Lynn is a pitcher to look at tonight.

Over 5.5 strikeouts for Lynn is the spot to look at tonight because that line is far too low for the current AL CY Young favorite. Lynn comes in with six strikeouts or more in seven of his last 10 starts, showing off his very solid 27.8% strikeout rate this season. Lynn has regularly shown the ability to push towards double-digit strikeouts, which is why this 5.5 line with plus money seems way too low.

He'll be up against the Toronto Blue Jays, who don't strike out too much, but that wasn't an issue for him earlier in the season when Lynn posted nine strikeouts in seven innings of action. The 5.5 line is too low for the quality of pitcher Lynn is, and that's what you should be trusting tonight.

Bryan Reynolds To Hit a Home Run (+500)

The Pittsburgh Pirates could be a source of offense tonight?

I know, that's not something we can say too often, but it's true. The Pirates are in a great spot versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, and if they have multiple home runs, it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. Humberto Mejia is expected to start for Arizona tonight, and he has very limited experience at the MLB level.

In his 10 MLB innings in 2020, Mejia allowed 2.70 HR/9. In 54.2 innings pitched in Triple-A this year, he gave up 1.15 HR/9, and in 32.0 innings at the Double-A level this year, he allowed 1.97 HR/9. He simply does not appear to be the type of pitcher we need to be afraid of tonight.

That is why I'll look to Bryan Reynolds, who comes in with a .228 ISO, 143 wRC+, 38.2% fly-ball rate, and 34.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. This could be the first and last time I'll look to a Pirates player for a home run prop this season.