3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Monday 8/23/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's six-game main slate.
Wil Crowe, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
FanDuel Salary: $6,200
We've got only six games on today's main slate, and pitching options are naturally limited due to an overall volume standpoint. But with Lance Lynn ($10,100), Alek Manoah ($9,600), and Zack Greinke ($9,200) the only arms with salaries above $8,600, we can save salary in a lot of ways.
Arizona's active hitting roster boasts a wRC+ of 90, which ranks 23rd in the Majors, and their strikeout rate of 24.0% is 20th. Crowe will be throwing at home in PNC Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB, as well.
As for his own data, Crowe is 3-3 since early June and has a 21.9% strikeout rate, which is actually 4th-best among the probable starters tonight.
His expected strikeout rate gets a boost against Arizona's bats, as well, and with Lynn up against a low-strikeout Toronto Blue Jays team, only Manoah rates out with a top-tier expected strikeout rate among starters anyway.
Crowe is numberFire's second-best pitching value of the evening, and our model projects him for a 26.0% chance to net a win and 4.3 strikeouts.
Aledmys Diaz, 2B, Houston Astros
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
It's always fun when we can grab value bats in an offense with a high implied run total.
The Astros will be up against Daniel Lynch and are playing at home.
Despite a 3-1 win-loss record and a 2.35 ERA since early June, Lynch has a strikeout rate of only 19.5%, an xFIP of 4.68, and a SIERA of 4.78.
Diaz also has a platoon advantage against Lynch, a lefty. Diaz' ISO climbs from .144 against righties to .243 against lefties this season.
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
FanDuel Salary: $2,600
Gary Sanchez won't be getting a platoon advantage against Huascar Ynoa, as they are both righties, but that isn't affecting his homer props too much even though Sanchez' ISO drops from .301 against lefties to .194 against righties.
At +300 on FanDuel Sportsbook, Sanchez is tied for the best home run odds among all hitters with a sub-$3,000 salary.
numberFire's model is seeing Sanchez as 24% likely to go yard tonight against Ynoa, as well.
Ynoa faced 19 batters in his return after a three-month absence. Against the lowly Miami Marlins' offense, Ynoa generated a modest 21.1% strikeout rate and a 4.07 single-game SIERA.
Plus, similar to Diaz, Sanchez' team has some pretty high offensive potential: the New York Yankees' implied run total is 4.46.