MLB

3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Thursday 9/2/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

FanDuel Salary: $6,800

Carlos Carrasco at this salary in a matchup with the Miami Marlins would be enticing on any slate. But with this being a Coors slate, Carrasco may wind up as the chalk arm. It might just be chalk you gotta swallow.

Carrasco's 6.94 ERA in 23 1/3 innings this year makes it look like he's been terrible. That's not the case. His 3.81 SIERA, 23.0% strikeout rate, and 13.1% swinging-strike rate are all really good marks. And he's had to face the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers (twice) over his last three outings.

This matchup with Miami is a much softer spot. Over the last 30 days, the Marlins are 21st in wOBA (.302) with the 2nd-highest strikeout rate (26.3%). Miami's 3.08 implied total is the lowest on the slate.

While pitch count is a concern -- Carrasco has been capped at 78 pitches in each of his last two starts -- we project the New York Mets' right-hander to produce 26.3 FanDuel points and slot him as the best point-per-dollar pitcher.

Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies

FanDuel Salary: $2,400

There's a lot to like about Sam Hilliard tonight.

Obviously, the salary is super appealing with the Colorado Rockies playing at Coors. That alone is enough to put Hilliard on the radar, and he'll likely be a go-to value option on this slate as an easy way to get a piece of the Rox's 5.66 implied total.

But Hilliard would be plenty viable in this matchup with Touki Toussaint even if he was listed at a higher salary. He's got a .373 wOBA at home this season and has 17 dongs in 273 career plate appearances against righties.

Our model ranks Hilliard as the seventh-best overall hitter -- number-two on the Rockies -- and the top point-per-dollar bat by a huge margin.

Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cubs

FanDuel Salary: $3,000

The largest non-Coors implied total belongs to the Chicago Cubs, who carry a 4.76 clip into their date with Mitch Keller.

Keller has been hammered by righties and lefties, but we should give a slight edge to those with the platoon advantage. Left-handed hitters have a .411 wOBA and 15.2% strikeout rate versus Keller this season.

Ian Happ, a switch hitter, was third in the order yesterday against a righty, and he's swinging it well recently -- popping three jacks over his last six games and posting a .361 wOBA in August.

We rank Happ as the slate's number-six stick overall and the second-best point-per-dollar hitter.