FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Thursday 9/2/21

This is a rough, rough five-game slate for pitching, as there really isn't a single guy you're going to feel supremely confident in. On the bright side, that does leave most hurlers at low salaries, so we can load up on bats if we want, which includes a Coors Field game with a massive 12.5 over/under.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Carlos Carrasco ($6,800): There's a very good chance pitching scores are down across the board tonight, in which case maybe straight up punting the position is the best path to success -- especially on a Coors Field slate. Carrasco has only gotten up to 78 pitches in back-to-back starts, so the ceiling isn't likely to be very high, but his matchup checks out against the lowly Marlins, who are showing a slate-low 3.05 implied total.

And while Carrasco's real-life results have left a lot to be desired across his six games, much of that came in a shellacking at the hands of the Dodgers, which is nothing to be ashamed of, and his underlying numbers actually aren't too bad, with a 3.81 SIERA, 23.0% strikeout rate, and 4.0% walk rate.

Shane McClanahan ($10,100): I really don't love paying this salary for McClanahan, but there's a reasonable chance he ends up with the top pitching score on this small slate. However, this being the Rays, it's impossible to know how many pitches he'll throw, as his five August starts were all over the place: 78, 79, 101, 92, and 88 pitches.

So, that part stinks, but McClanahan's putting up a strong 3.59 SIERA, 27.7% strikeout rate, and 7.3% walk rate, and his matchup against a Covid-ridden Red Sox is easier than it otherwise normally would be. Boston is missing Xander Bogaerts and Enrique Hernandez among others, and the bottom of their order is beginning to more reasonable that of a Triple-A squad. They have the second-worst implied total (3.35) behind Miami.

It might be more difficult to fit in McClanahan if you want to load up on Coors bats, but if that game flops, you could be rewarded for spending up on him.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,200): Rodriguez is right there with McCallahan for the best overall numbers on the slate with a 3.64 SIERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate, and his salary is far lower, giving you more flexibility for your stacks. But Rodriguez has also been wildly inconsistent all year, and this is a rough spot against a Tampa team that can counter him with a slew of righties if they so choose. Rodriguez is coming off a 109-pitch outing, so he theoretically possesses one of the higher ceilings tonight, though his workloads have hardly been steady, either.

No doubt, E-Rod is a boom-or-bust kind of play, but he's one who could pay off in GPPs. Triston McKenzie is a similar high-risk option versus the Royals, boasting a 28.5% strikeout rate but also an often crippling 12.5% walk rate.

Others to Consider: Triston McKenzie ($8,800), Mike Minor ($8,500)

Stacks

Atlanta Braves: There is no question which offense will be the chalk stack tonight, and it's the Braves at Coors Field against right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez. Both Coors teams have massive implied totals, but Atlanta is being credited with a mark of 6.84, easily the slate's highest.

It's been yet another brutal campaign for Gonazalez, who owns an ugly 5.48 ERA over his career. In 2021, he's submitted a 5.15 SIERA, 13.2% strikeout rate, and 39.5% ground-ball rate. There isn't any noticeable difference in his splits versus either lefties or righties, too, so we can confidently load up on any and all Atlanta bats.

Freddie Freeman ($4,000) will be a no-brainer chalk option with the platoon advantage, and Joc Pederson ($2,900) is an easy value if he's batting leadoff with Ozzie Albies likely sitting out again. Along with those two, any of Austin Riley ($3,700), Jorge Soler ($3,600), Dansby Swanson ($3,500), and Adam Duvall ($3,500) are strong candidates go yard tonight.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies don't have the hitting talent of the Braves, and their matchup isn't quite as easy against Touki Toussaint, but they should be right behind the Braves in terms of popularity. The Braves young righty is talented, but he often struggles with his control, and he hasn't been as effective versus lefties this season. In that split, he's showing a poor 5.68 xFIP, 20.3% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate, and he's also giving up a 43.2% fly-ball rate, leaving the door open for plenty of dingers.

That should put us on Charlie Blackmon ($3,400) and Ryan McMahon ($3,300), and the speedy Raimel Tapia ($2,500) becomes intriguing if he moves up the order.

Toussaint has been strong versus righties with a 3.31 xFIp and 26.8% strikeout rate, so that does put a damper on things, but his walk issues could always creep up, lending itself to the full stack. He also hasn't made a start since August 22, so he may not go as deep as he normally would, leaving plenty of bullpen innings.

C.J. Cron ($3,900) and Trevor Story ($3,600) are the righty power bats in the heart of the order, while Connor Joe ($3,100) and Brendan Rodgers ($2,700) continue to be value plays at the top of the lineup. Both Joe and Rodgers have demonstrated solid pop, too, with identical .190 ISOs.

Chicago Cubs: Things dry up pretty quickly once we get past Coors, so hopefully that spreads ownership somewhat among the remaining teams. With the third-highest implied total (4.76), the Cubs may draw some attention, but considering how lacking their lineup is these days, it's hard to see too many of their roster percentages getting out of hand.

But Chicago does find itself in a plus matchup versus Mitch Keller, who's been rocked for a 6.75 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over 17 starts. Although he's struggled against both sides of the plate, his peripheral numbers against lefties are what we want to primarily attack. In that split, he's been lit up for a 6.13 xFIP with a 15.2% strikeout rate, 13.4% walk rate, and 31.6% ground-ball rate. Rafael Ortega ($3,400) and Ian Happ ($3,000) are the top guys to take advantage of that weakness.

And while Keller has shown he can get strikeouts versus righties (24.3%), he's still giving up dingers to them, so Patrick Wisdom ($3,800) and Frank Schwindel ($3,300) are the other two core options to build around.

Others to Consider: New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals