3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 9/3/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Aaron Judge To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (+240)
Another night, another spot where I can't decide between two hitters.
The New York Yankees are primed to live up to their Bronx Bombers name tonight, as they are at home and set to take on John Means. Despite having some success earlier in the year, Means is a really average pitcher and one who we should be actively looking to attack with home run props.
This season, Means is allowing 2.10 homers per nine (HR/9), a 4.32 xFIP, 49.2% fly-ball rate, and 16.8% homer-to-fly-ball (HR/FB) ratio versus right-handed hitters. I'm not sure if you've heard this, but Yankee Stadium is a great park for hitters, and Means holding a 49.2% fly-ball rate is very dangerous.
Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton bring plenty of home-run upside versus lefties, and both of them are great options tonight, which is why I can't decide between them.
Judge comes in with a 173 wRC+, .260 ISO, 36.5% fly-ball rate, 51.0% hard-contact rate, and 28.6% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers. Judge is also in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity and max exit velocity, and he ranks in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage, per Baseball Savant.
Stanton comes in with a 142 wRC+, .189 ISO, 38.0% hard-contact rate, and 23.1% HR/FB ratio versus lefties. This shouldn't come as a surprise, but Stanton is also in the 100th percentile for average exit velocity and max exit velocity, and he sits in the 90th percentile for barrel percentage.
It's a great spot for both players; it's that simple.
Jose Altuve To Hit a Home Run (+360)
If the Houston Astros hit multiple home runs tonight, don't be surprised.
The Astros are on the road to take on the San Diego Padres, who will have Jake Arrieta on the mound. Arrieta is set to make his return after a hamstring injury, and to put things simply -- he wasn't good before the injury, and he won't be good now. Arrieta is allowing 2.30 HR/9, a 38.4% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed hitters this season. His numbers aren't that much better versus lefties, so all of the Astros are in play tonight.
We can turn to Jose Altuve, who comes in with a very solid .235 ISO, 139 wRC+, 14.7% strikeout rate, 37.7% fly-ball rate, and 19.4% HR/FB ratio versus righties this season. It's great to see a strikeout rate that low. He isn't wasting chances at the plate and is still bringing plenty of power.
Sean Manaea Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-158)
The under on Sean Manaea's strikeout prop is the spot to look at.
Initially, this price was sitting at -132 and has since moved to -158. If that's too much juice for you, I get it, but it really looks like a good spot. Manaea has posted five strikeouts or fewer in five straight starts and now faces the Toronto Blue Jays, who have the fourth-lowest -- 20.9% -- strikeout rate versus lefties.
Not only that -- the Blue Jays also come in with a .180 ISO against lefties, which is the eighth-best in the league. They have all the power you could possibly want in a lineup and could easily post some runs early against Manaea, forcing him out of the game. There are plenty of paths for the under hitting here.
