FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 9/3/21

We've generally had deep pitching pools to dive into on this week's slates -- but this is not one of them. Despite 14 games on the always large Friday main slate, it drops off pretty quickly after we get past our top option. Of course, the flip side of that is a healthy selection of hitting spots to navigate, including the always inviting Coors Field.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Shohei Ohtani ($10,800): With Freddy Peralta coming off the injured list and almost certainly looking at a lower pitch count, that leaves Ohtani alone atop tonight's pitcher ranks -- and that's even more so the case when his opponent is the Rangers. Texas' active roster owns an 82 wRC+ and 23.4% strikeout rate versus righties, and their implied total sits at a paltry 3.21 on Friday.

Meanwhile, Ohtani has reeled in the walks lately, which has typically been his biggest weakness. Since the start of July, he's issued one or zero free passes in six of his past seven starts. Of course, it's worth noting that he did have a three-walk outing against Toronto over that span, so it's not like we're completely out of the woods, but he's clearly showing better control than we saw at the start of the season.

As a result, he's now dropped his season-long walk rate to a less scary 9.2% while still putting up a robust 29.9% strikeout rate. Although Ohtani continues to have an up-and-down workload anywhere in the mid-80s to high-90s, that's less of a concern for us given the matchup and lack of elite alternatives tonight.

Nathan Eovaldi ($9,100): I'm not sure I've mentioned Eovaldi in this space all season, but that's the kind of night this is. Eovaldi is a fine real-life pitcher, posting a 3.65 SIERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 4.1% walk rate, but the punchouts are a smidge lower than what we generally like to roster in DFS. Still, he can produce strong fantasy scores when he's efficient on the mound, as he's cracked seven or more innings five times in his past 11 starts, scoring 46, 58, 45, 49, and 48 points in those outings.

That's a ceiling we can get behind, and this isn't a bad spot for him versus a Cleveland roster with a 93 wRC+ and 23.5% strikeout rate against right-handers. The strikeout upside is probably even higher, too, as the bottom of the projected Indians lineup has a whole lot of swing-and-miss.

Nestor Cortes ($7,300): While Cortes is coming off a poor start (19 FanDuel points), this salary still seems rather low for a guy who previously posted 46 points in back-to-back starts. He's also put up some solid numbers this season, with a 3.97 SIERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, and 7.6% walk rate. Even better, the Yankees have begun trusting him with a high pitch count, as he's logged 95, 104, and 98 pitches in his last three outings.

The Orioles may not be an amazing offense, but they're made up almost entirely of right-handed hitters, making this a less ideal opponent for Cortes. That said, this a nonexistent salary on a Coors Field night, and Baltimore is only displaying a 3.92 implied total.

Others to Consider: Alek Manoah ($10,000), Adam Wainwright ($9,600)

Stacks

Atlanta Braves: The Braves lead the way again tonight at Coors Field with a 5.85 implied total, this time facing Antonio Senzatela. While the high implied totals and pitiful strikeout rate (16.2%) always make stacking against Senzatela look great on paper, the truth is he's actually performed well at Coors Field this year, and his annoying ground-ball rate has helped him allow just a 26.1% fly-ball rate, assisting him in giving up a mere 0.65 home runs per nine innings.

That being said, the lack of strikeouts still means Senzatela is coughing up lots of balls in play, and his 8.5% homer-to-fly-ball rate is well below both his career average (13.3%) and the 2021 league average (13.6%), so he's been getting some luck in that area.

So, yeah, Senzatela could absolutely get lit up here, but there are at least reasons to consider lowering your exposure to Atlanta if you want to avoid the chalk in tournaments.

As for the Braves themselves, they're absolutely stack-worthy from top to bottom. Of tonight's expected starters, Adam Duvall ($3,700) owns the highest ISO (.252) and barrel rate (14.7%) despite his low spot in the batting order. Due to the team's elevated salaries, Joc Pederson ($3,200) might be the closest thing to a value play tonight.

Cincinnati Reds: The Reds are home at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and draw a fantastic matchup against a low-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher in Tyler Alexander. The Detroit left-hander has recorded a middling 19.1% strikeout rate and sky-high 44.7% fly-ball rate this season, so this is a prime spot for Cincinnati to knock out some dingers.

Nick Castellanos ($4,300) is the obvious top guy if you can fit him under the cap, along with leadoff man Jonathan India ($3,600), but then there should be loads of righty values like Tyler Stephenson ($2,600), Eugenio Suarez ($3,000), Aristides Aquino ($2,500), and Kyle Farmer ($2,900).

Although Alexander has enjoyed better results against lefties, the underlying numbers in the split aren't much better, so Joey Votto ($3,800) may not be at a complete disadvantage in stacks, too.

Houston Astros: Other intriguing matchups for stacks include the New York Yankees against John Means and the Tampa Bay Rays against Randy Dobnak, but let's touch on the Astros instead. I'm not sure if it's possible for a team like Houston to fly under the radar, but they have a curiously low (for them) implied total of 4.73 despite a stellar spot versus Jake Arrieta.

Arrieta has ugly numbers across the board, with a 4.93 SIERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate while giving up a whopping 2.21 home runs per nine innings. His horrendous ERA led him to get released by the Cubs before ultimately landing with the Padres. Unsurprisingly, Arrieta performed poorly in his Padres debut (though it was Coors Field), and he will now make his second start in the uniform after a stint on the injured list.

So, we have one of the best offenses in baseball facing a potentially washed up pitcher, and said pitcher is coming off the IL? I wouldn't be shocked if this implied total rises later in the day.

Arrieta owns a 5.38 xFIP against lefties and has struggled in the split for years, so it's Yordan Alvarez ($4,100), Kyle Tucker ($3,300), and Michael Brantley ($3,200) up first, followed by the Houston righties. Arrieta gets more grounders in same-sided matchups, but as we've seen from the barrage of home runs he's allowed, I don't think we're all that concerned tonight.

Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox