Fantasy Baseball: 3 Things We Learned in Week 23

Baseball fans love their stats. We devour them, dissect them, and build our fantasy rosters around them. Each week of the 2021 baseball season, we will be gifted with another statistical sample size of pitches, plate appearances, and playing time. Knowing it often takes hundreds or even thousands of pitches or batted-ball events for trends to normalize, how should fantasy managers adjust to the ebbs and flows of weekly player performance?

Each week during this season, this piece will look at trends that have emerged over the past week and determine if it is signal or noise moving forward. What is prescriptive in helping build winning fantasy teams and what can be ignored as small sample size noise? Hopefully, we can make sense of what has just happened to help us make smarter roster and free agent budget decisions.

Let's take a look at some of the data from the 23rd scoring period of the fantasy baseball season.

Pick a Lane

About five months ago, the fantasy world was abuzz with the potential for Washington Nationals starting centerfielder Victor Robles. After a tantalizing 2019 season where Robles hit 17 home runs and stole 28 bases, rotisserie die-hards were falling over themselves to draft him in the later rounds, considering the strong state of the Nationals' offense.

Then the season started and all those hopes were burned to the ground. Before Robles was mercifully sent down to Triple-A, he hit .208 with just two home runs and eight steals across 107 games, somehow slugging only .295.

But his replacement -- Lane Thomas -- has been nothing short of spectacular filling the centerfield shoes Robles left behind. Over the past seven days, Thomas hit .367 with seven runs, three home runs, and six RBI. He has been a force atop the Washington lineup, leading him to be the 10th-best rotisserie hitter in the past week as we enter the fantasy playoffs. What do we know about Thomas and is he worth the pickup for our fantasy rosters? He is only 7% rostered presently, so he is widely available for those needing outfield help.

Thomas came over from the St. Louis Cardinals in the trade for Jon Lester earlier this season. As a 26-year old with only 224 career MLB plate appearances, he is well past the hot prospect stage, but he was drafted in the fifth round back in 2014 with intriguing power/speed upside and was graded with 60 speed and 50 power.

According to Baseball Savant, he is already 96th percentile in sprint speed, so he can use his legs to his advantage both at the plate and on the bases. But he also has been hitting the ball exceptionally hard since his call-up on August 15th. He has 70 batted balls with an exit velocity over 95 miles per hour, including six already at more than 110 MPH (for context, Bryce Harper has 21 all season).

There probably is not a higher ceiling to his game than what he is doing right now, but with an opportunity to play and bat leadoff every day, he is an intriguing add who offers some pop, runs, and potentially steals to your fantasy roster for the playoffs.

Singer Hitting a High Note

It's impressive for any pitcher to go three straight starts with an ERA of just 1.17, but the fact that Brady Singer has done it recently against the Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners should make us sit up and pay attention.

Over his last three starts, Singer has compiled 18 innings, 17 strikeouts and a 1.00 WHIP to go along with that low ERA. The anemic-at-times Kansas City Royals offense hasn't done him any favors, granting him only one win during that stretch, but with dates coming up with the Minnesota Twins, Mariners, and Detroit Tigers to round out the season, it's not crazy to think Singer could be a valuable asset to playoff teams.

Singer's pitches don't stand out if you compare their season-long value. In fact, Fangraphs rates Singer's fastball, slider, and changeup among some of the worst in the league, but he has recently refined the changeup, and it is getting him the needed whiffs to stay away from hard contact. According to Fangraphs, here is Singer's swinging strike rate as he has increased his changeup usage after the All-Star break.

This is primarily the reason Singer has been able to average a strikeout per inning over his last four starts, and it should serve him well over the last four weeks of the season. Presently, Singer is only 30% rostered in Yahoo leagues, and he has the potential to provide solid ratios and a decent amount of strikeouts over the balance of the season.

Add Ian Happ

Ian Happ (63% rostered in Yahoo leagues) - If you can remember the world from this long ago, let your mind wander back to March 29, 2018. It was the first pitch of the 2018 season, and the Chicago Cubs' new leadoff man, Ian Happ, crushed it for a massive home run. In fact, the Cubs' announcer that day even predicted it might happen.

The fantasy baseball world lost its collective mind at that point, as we were all sure we had the next great power/speed combo ready to rock. Fast forward to the end of 2021, after several trips back and forth to the minor leagues, and Happ has been quite the disappointment considering the hype from three years ago.

Happ' struggles are known. He strikes out too much (36.1% in that 2018 season, only improved to 30.4% this year). His on-base percentage tanked this year (just .305 entering Tuesday's games). And his ground-ball rate has gotten steadily worse: 39.6% in 2018 and now 46.2% this year. But in the past two weeks, much of that promise has been on display as Happ has smashed to the tune of .340 average, eight runs, five home runs, 13 RBI and two steals. That line is good for the seventh-best rotisserie hitter in that span.

With the moves the Cubs made at the deadline, it's clear Happ is going to play every inning of every game, and he will surely be a major part of their plans in 2022, as well. The hope on the south side of Chicago is that he can take these late-season gains and use them to propel his offensive game to another level next season. How has he been doing it?

According to Fangraphs, around 20 games ago, Happ bottomed out at near 70% contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone. For context, Joey Gallo is last in the majors with a 72% zone contact rate. But since that time, either his approach or his batting eye has become more discerning, and he is making much more contact on those pitches -- now close to 85%. That figure would put Happ in the top 75 hitters on the season, miles better than his current rank of 125th.

This stat is something to watch over the next few weeks. Does he continue to make gains? It could go a long way to an improved 2022.