MLB

FanDuel Pitching Primer: Friday 9/10/21

Framber Valdez limits hard contact well and has a fantastic matchup with the Angels tonight. Who else should we consider?

In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.

When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.

As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?

High-Salaried Play

Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays

at Baltimore Orioles
FanDuel Salary: $11,200

If I was given a vote for the Cy Young award (to be clear, they don't let me anywhere near that thing), I would have a hard time not singing the praises of ace Robbie Ray when casting my ballot.

Ray has been absolutely among the league's best arms this season. In terms of qualified starters, Ray ranks sixth in xFIP (3.21) and fourth in strikeout rate (32.4%). He has been absolutely brilliant, and with all of those whiffs, he provides plenty of the strikeout upside that we so desperately crave. It has been on display recently as well, with four straight starts posting double-digit strikeouts.

What makes Ray particularly appealing on this slate is his opponent, the Baltimore Orioles. The O's have overall marks of a 24.7% strikeout rate and their .317 wOBA, which is 12th-worst in the league. While they have been better against lefties, Ray had no issue with them on August 30th, where he only allowed four hits between his ten strikeouts.

Until further notice, Ray is locked in as our top of the play of the evening, and if it is possible to get to his salary, he definitely feels worth it.

High-Salaried Play

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros

vs. Los Angeles Angels
FanDuel Salary: $10,500

With so many high-priced arms, it would seem absent-minded to not recommend a second stud on the slate tonight, and Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros checks a lot of boxes tonight.

First, Valdez has provided excellent work the entire year. The lefty's 3.08 ERA and 3.50 xFIP shows he's been a solid play on the season over 111 innings. He also has posted a 22.0% strikeout rate and a whopping 69.9% ground-ball rate. With just a 4.8% barrel rate as well, it's been difficult making solid, fly-ball contact for a homer against Valdez.

He gets better considering the matchup, as the Los Angeles Angels, who are one of the league's worst offenses. Over the past 30 days, they sport a league-worst .282 wOBA, the third-worst isolated power mark (.135 ISO), and a 26.0% strikeout rate.

Valdez is a high-floor option despite his usual concerns around strikeouts.

Low-Salaried Play

Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics

vs. Texas Rangers
FanDuel Salary: $7,000

Using lower-salary pitchers lined up against the Texas Rangers has been a fruitful endeavor. Why? The Rangers have been worse in many spots than even the Angels.

Over the last 30 days, the Rangers have cut down on their strikeout issues, with just a 19.9% strikeout rate. However, the rest of the metrics are unsightly. A .147 ISO is nauseating, and their .310 wOBA is nothing to write home about either. Texas's active roster has just an 83 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, which is fifth-worst in MLB.

As a result of generally struggling, the Rangers' 3.78 implied team total is one of the lowest on the slate, and that bodes well for Paul Blackburn of the Oakland Athletics. Blackburn's 46.3% ground-ball rate raises his floor, even if his 14.1% strikeout rate is not typically worth excitement. As has been the strategy for much of the second half of the season, if you need to save some salary, Blackburn is a solid choice.



Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.