3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/28/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Bobby Dalbec To Hit a Home Run (+290)
The Boston Red Sox are primed for multiple home runs tonight.
If there was any time for the Red Sox offense to show their true power, it would be tonight against the Baltimore Orioles, when they need to pick up a win in the wild card race. They will be taking on Bruce Zimmermann, who is expected back after an ankle injury. He comes in allowing 1.90 HR/9, a 4.71 xFIP, a 37.2% fly-ball rate, and a 38.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. It's a great hitter's park in Baltimore, giving the hitters a nice boost.
We turn to the Sox young first baseman, Bobby Dalbec, who has a very solid .266 ISO, 133 wRC+, 41.5% fly-ball rate, 36.8% hard-contact rate, and 22.7% HR/FB rate versus southpaws this season. Realistically, most of the Red Sox power righties are in a good spot, so J.D. Martinez or Xander Bogaerts could also be an option.
Joey Votto To Hit a Home Run (+260)
Joey Votto is like a fine wine -- he gets better with age.
Even though it seems the Cincinnati Reds' playoff chances are over, we can still look to their hitters for some home run props because they are in a great spot. They are going up against Reynaldo Lopez, who comes in with a 4,50 xFIP, 1.57 HR/9, a 40.3% fly-ball rate, and a 37.3% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Lopez giving up too many home runs is nothing new for him, and we should look to stay with what we know works.
Votto is only two home runs away from tying his career-high, so I'm expecting him to push for that in the final week of the season. He's been able to do that since he comes in with a 169 wRC+, .360 ISO, 46.8% fly-ball rate, and 45.9% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Votto fits the home run profile to a tee and is a top option tonight.
Logan Webb Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Logan Webb has an awesome matchup tonight, and his strikeout prop is the place to look.
Whenever the Arizona Diamondbacks are on the slate, we can look to attack them with a pitcher's strikeout prop, and it's Webb's turn to shine tonight. The Diamondbacks come in with a 24.9% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-worst in the league. They've been near the bottom of the league all season and just because we are in the final week doesn't mean we need to stop what's worked thus far.
Webb has a solid 26.2% strikeout rate this season and has shown that off recently with six strikeouts or more in eight of his last 10 starts. There should be nothing holding Webb back tonight as he is in stride right now and has a soft matchup against Arizona.
