MLB Betting Guide: Monday 10/11/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Chicago White Sox -126: 1 Star out of 5
The home team has won every game so far in this series, and home-field advantage could prove to be critical once again. The White Sox are 53-28 at home this season, while the Astros are 44-37 away from home.
The White Sox also should have the advantage in today’s pitching matchup, with Carlos Rodon going against Jose Urquidy. Rodon has a 2.37 ERA and a xERA of 2.63 in 24 starts this season, while Urquidy has a 3.62 ERA and 3.87 xERA.
Our model gives Chicago a 57.21% chance to win the game, making this a 1-star bet.
Boston +1.5 (-164): 2 Stars out of 5
Boston finds themselves up 2-1 in this series with Tampa Bay, and they’ve won off the backs of their offense the last two games. Boston scored 14 runs in Game 2 and then 6 runs in Game 3 in 13 innings.
Boston has a good chance to clinch (or at least cover) against Tampa on Monday, as they have Eduardo Rodriguez starting against a likely bullpen game from Tampa.
Rodriguez has a 3.32 FIP in 157.2 innings in 2021, and in 2019 (his last season), he finished with a 3.81 ERA and came in 6th place in the AL Cy Young voting.
Rodriguez is one of the elite pitchers in baseball, and the Red Sox are rolling offensively. We give Boston a 67.97% chance to cover the runline of 1.5 and we like this as a two-star bet.
San Francisco +1.5 (-130): 1 Star out of 5
The Dodgers do start Max Scherzer, who was one of the best starting pitchers in baseball yet again this season, posting a 2.46 ERA and an xERA of 2.89. However, Scherzer only made it through 4.1 innings against the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card, and he has pitched fewer than 6 innings in each of his last 3 starts.
The Dodgers could be in trouble if this turns into a bullpen game, as the Giants have the best bullpen ERA in MLB at 2.99, although the Dodgers are close behind a 3.16.
Our model gives San Francisco a 60.11% likelihood to cover the runline of 1.5, and we rate this as a 1-star bet.