MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 5/19/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
9.55.0539.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
8.04.6432.1%18.7%9.9%4.7%2.1%
HOUGlenn
Otto
8.04.6231.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
BOSGeorge
Kirby
8.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
KCVince
Velasquez
9.54.4528.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
CLETyler
Mahle
8.04.2225.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
PHIYu
Darvish
8.04.1023.1%12.1%5.7%2.4%1.0%
SEARich
Hill
8.54.0522.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
ARIMarcus
Stroman
8.04.0221.8%11.3%5.2%2.2%0.8%
CHCZac
Gallen
8.03.9821.2%10.9%5.0%2.1%0.8%
NYMDakota
Hudson
7.03.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
SDKyle
Gibson
8.03.9019.9%10.1%4.5%1.9%0.7%
CINCal
Quantrill
8.03.7818.1%8.9%3.9%1.6%0.6%
TEXFramber
Valdez
8.03.3812.7%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
BALJordan
Montgomery
8.03.3612.4%5.5%2.2%0.8%0.2%
STLChris
Bassitt
7.03.099.3%3.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Chris
Bassitt
STL6.185.8%72.9%57.2%41.1%27.1%16.4%9.2%
Tyler
Mahle
CLE5.983.5%69.4%53.0%37.0%23.6%13.8%7.4%
Framber
Valdez
TEX5.882.7%68.3%51.7%35.7%22.5%13.0%6.9%
Yu
Darvish
PHI5.782.2%67.6%50.8%34.9%21.8%12.5%6.6%
Zac
Gallen
CHC5.478.6%62.5%45.2%29.7%17.7%9.7%4.8%
Jordan
Montgomery
BAL5.175.1%58.0%40.5%25.6%14.6%7.6%3.6%
Kyle
Gibson
SD4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Cal
Quantrill
CIN4.972.5%54.7%37.2%22.8%12.6%6.4%2.9%
Vince
Velasquez
KC4.870.1%51.8%34.4%20.5%11.0%5.4%2.4%
Rich
Hill
SEA4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Carlos
Hernandez
CHW4.362.1%42.8%26.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
Glenn
Otto
HOU4.056.7%37.1%21.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Bruce
Zimmermann
NYY3.751.0%31.7%17.3%8.4%3.6%1.4%0.5%
Dakota
Hudson
NYM3.648.7%29.5%15.7%7.4%3.1%1.2%0.4%
George
Kirby
BOS3.546.8%27.8%14.5%6.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%
Marcus
Stroman
ARI3.136.8%19.7%9.1%3.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all home run props at FanDuel Sportsbook here.

Batter Team Opp
Pitcher
Proj
HR
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Joey
Gallo
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.3925.6%+291
Jose
Ramirez
CLETyler
Mahle
0.3724.7%+304
Rafael
Devers
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.3523.8%+319
Jordan
Luplow
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.3322.9%+336
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.3121.9%+356
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.3021.4%+367
Nick
Castellanos
PHIYu
Darvish
0.2920.9%+378
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYu
Darvish
0.2920.9%+378
J.D.
Martinez
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.2820.4%+391
Jose
Altuve
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.2820.4%+391
Bryce
Harper
PHIYu
Darvish
0.2820.4%+391
A.J.
Pollock
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.2619.3%+418
Manny
Machado
SDKyle
Gibson
0.2619.3%+418
Aaron
Judge
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.2619.3%+418
Rhys
Hoskins
PHIYu
Darvish
0.2619.3%+418
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.2619.3%+418
Anthony
Santander
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.2518.7%+434
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.2418.2%+451
Daulton
Varsho
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.2418.2%+451
Willson
Contreras
CHCZac
Gallen
0.2317.6%+469
Luis
Torrens
SEARich
Hill
0.2317.6%+469
Kyle
Tucker
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.2317.6%+469
Gavin
Sheets
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.2317.6%+469
Eugenio
Suarez
SEARich
Hill
0.2217.0%+490
Christian
Walker
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.2217.0%+490
Luis
Robert
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.2217.0%+490
Chas
McCormick
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.2217.0%+490
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.2116.3%+512
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLChris
Bassitt
0.2116.3%+512
Jose
Abreu
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.2116.3%+512
Jesse
Winker
SEARich
Hill
0.2116.3%+512
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCZac
Gallen
0.2116.3%+512
Francisco
Lindor
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.2015.7%+536
Trevor
Story
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.2015.7%+536
Pete
Alonso
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.2015.7%+536
Josh
Donaldson
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.1915.1%+564
Brandon
Drury
CINCal
Quantrill
0.1915.1%+564
Luke
Voit
SDKyle
Gibson
0.1915.1%+564
J.T.
Realmuto
PHIYu
Darvish
0.1814.4%+594
Corey
Seager
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.1814.4%+594
Colin
Moran
CINCal
Quantrill
0.1814.4%+594
Tyler
Stephenson
CINCal
Quantrill
0.1814.4%+594
Jean
Segura
PHIYu
Darvish
0.1713.7%+628
Hunter
Dozier
KCVince
Velasquez
0.1713.7%+628
Tyler
O'Neill
STLChris
Bassitt
0.1713.7%+628
Adolis
Garcia
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.1713.7%+628
Austin
Hedges
CLETyler
Mahle
0.1613.1%+666
Ty
France
SEARich
Hill
0.1613.1%+666
Jake
Hager
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.1613.1%+666
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCVince
Velasquez
0.1613.1%+666
Alek
Thomas
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.1613.1%+666
Carlos
Santana
KCVince
Velasquez
0.1512.4%+709
Mike
Moustakas
CINCal
Quantrill
0.1512.4%+709
Nolan
Arenado
STLChris
Bassitt
0.1512.4%+709
Trey
Mancini
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.1512.4%+709
Alex
Bregman
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.1512.4%+709
Franchy
Cordero
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.1512.4%+709
Dylan
Moore
SEARich
Hill
0.1512.4%+709
Julio
Rodriguez
SEARich
Hill
0.1512.4%+709
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.1411.6%+759
Odubel
Herrera
PHIYu
Darvish
0.1411.6%+759
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.1411.6%+759
Owen
Miller
CLETyler
Mahle
0.1411.6%+759
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.1310.9%+816
Michael
Brantley
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.1310.9%+816
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.1310.9%+816
Tommy
Pham
CINCal
Quantrill
0.1310.9%+816
Gleyber
Torres
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.1310.9%+816
Cedric
Mullins
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.1310.9%+816
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.1310.9%+816
Bryson
Stott
PHIYu
Darvish
0.1310.9%+816
Martin
Maldonado
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.1210.2%+883
Chris
Owings
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.1210.2%+883
Amed
Rosario
CLETyler
Mahle
0.1210.2%+883
Jonah
Heim
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.1210.2%+883
Pavin
Smith
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.1210.2%+883
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDKyle
Gibson
0.1210.2%+883
Geraldo
Perdomo
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.1210.2%+883
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCZac
Gallen
0.1210.2%+883
Jeremy
Pena
HOUGlenn
Otto
0.1210.2%+883
MJ
Melendez
KCVince
Velasquez
0.1210.2%+883
Kole
Calhoun
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.119.4%+962
Tim
Anderson
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.119.4%+962
Tyler
Naquin
CINCal
Quantrill
0.119.4%+962
Yoan
Moncada
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.119.4%+962
Ian
Happ
CHCZac
Gallen
0.119.4%+962
Harrison
Bader
STLChris
Bassitt
0.119.4%+962
Austin
Hays
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.119.4%+962
Oscar
Mercado
CLETyler
Mahle
0.119.4%+962
Josh
Rojas
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.119.4%+962
Tyler
Nevin
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.119.4%+962
Cal
Raleigh
SEARich
Hill
0.119.4%+962
TJ
Friedl
CINCal
Quantrill
0.119.4%+962
Eric
Hosmer
SDKyle
Gibson
0.108.6%+1058
Robinson
Chirinos
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.108.6%+1058
Charlie
Culberson
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.108.6%+1058
Jurickson
Profar
SDKyle
Gibson
0.108.6%+1058
Leury
Garcia
CHWCarlos
Hernandez
0.108.6%+1058
Matt
Reynolds
CINCal
Quantrill
0.108.6%+1058
Brandon
Nimmo
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.108.6%+1058
Andrew
Benintendi
KCVince
Velasquez
0.108.6%+1058
Alex
Verdugo
BOSGeorge
Kirby
0.108.6%+1058
Juan
Yepez
STLChris
Bassitt
0.108.6%+1058
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCZac
Gallen
0.108.6%+1058
Yadier
Molina
STLChris
Bassitt
0.097.8%+1174
Wil
Myers
SDKyle
Gibson
0.097.8%+1174
Jonathan
Villar
CHCZac
Gallen
0.097.8%+1174
Marcus
Semien
TEXFramber
Valdez
0.097.8%+1174
David
Peralta
ARIMarcus
Stroman
0.097.8%+1174
Michael
Taylor
KCVince
Velasquez
0.097.8%+1174
Mark
Canha
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.097.8%+1174
Kyle
Farmer
CINCal
Quantrill
0.097.8%+1174
Dominic
Smith
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.097.8%+1174
Jose
Trevino
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.097.8%+1174
Tommy
Edman
STLChris
Bassitt
0.097.8%+1174
Trent
Grisham
SDKyle
Gibson
0.097.8%+1174
Alec
Bohm
PHIYu
Darvish
0.097.8%+1174
Brendan
Donovan
STLChris
Bassitt
0.097.8%+1174
Rafael
Ortega
CHCZac
Gallen
0.087.0%+1320
Aaron
Hicks
NYYBruce
Zimmermann
0.087.0%+1320
J.P.
Crawford
SEARich
Hill
0.087.0%+1320
Myles
Straw
CLETyler
Mahle
0.087.0%+1320
Dylan
Carlson
STLChris
Bassitt
0.087.0%+1320
Richie
Palacios
CLETyler
Mahle
0.087.0%+1320
Tomas
Nido
NYMDakota
Hudson
0.076.2%+1507
Jorge
Mateo
BALJordan
Montgomery
0.076.2%+1507
Andres
Gimenez
CLETyler
Mahle
0.076.2%+1507