MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/1/22
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money – whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
Giants Moneyline (+108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This game gives us a fantastic pitching matchup between Carlos Rodon and Aaron Nola. Our model likes the underdog San Francisco Giants to get the best of the Philadelphia Phillies.
After a red-hot start to the year, Rodon has hit a few stumbling blocks of late, including an eight-run nightmare outing versus the St. Louis Cardinals back on May 15th. His overall numbers are still nasty, though, as Rodon owns a 3.23 SIERA, 30.9% strikeout rate and 13.4% swinging-strike rate. He's taking on a Philly offense that has some big names but hasn't quite lived up to it thus far, and they sport the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.0%) versus lefties.
Nola is having another excellent campaign, pitching to a 2.54 SIERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 11.5% swinging-strike rate, and 4.2% walk rate. But he's had a gopher-ball problem at home this year, permitting 1.88 per nine in Philly, and San Fran is sixth in wOBA against righties (.323).
Our model projects the Giants to win by a score of 4.70-3.99. We give San Francisco win odds of 55.4%. With the Giants priced at +108 on the moneyline, taking San Fran to win is a two-star bet, according to our numbers.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Over 7.5 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
As long as the weather holds off in the Big Apple, the New York Yankees can do the heavy lifting today against Reid Detmers to get this one to the over.
Detmers isn't having a good year. Yes, he threw a no-no, but his overall numbers -- and his numbers from that no-hitter (2 punchouts and a 4.76 xFIP) -- are underwhelming. He's put up a 4.55 SIERA, 17.1% strikeout rate, 7.0% walk rate and 9.1% swinging-strike rate. Righties have a 46.5% fly-ball rate against him. That's probably not going to play well at Yankee Stadium against a lineup that boasts righties such as Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu. New York has an MLB-leading 27 jacks against southpaws this year.
We project the Yanks to push across 5.40 runs, which means we don't need too much from the Los Angeles Angels' offense. That's good because they're taking on Nestor Cortes, who has been lights out.
Cortes' 2.90 SIERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate are all excellent clips. He is, however, due for some negative regression in the strikeout department as his swinging-strike rate is only 9.7%. He's due to give up more homers, too. Despite a 42.2% fly-ball rate, Cortes has surrendered just 0.68 taters per nine thanks to a lowly 7.4% homer-per-fly-ball rate, which is exactly half of his career mark (14.8%).
Again, we shouldn't need a lot from this Angels lineup for the over to cash, and Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward, and company should be able to tally a few runs. We have them scoring 4.09 runs.
So, in all, we project 9.49 runs in this one -- nearly two runs above the listed total. We forecast the over to win out 66.1% of the time and mark it as a three-star wager.
