FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Friday 6/10/22

It doesn't get any fuller than tonight's 15-game main slate in MLB DFS, so it's imperative that we dig through the pitching and hitting options. But as always: with more choices, we have more value, and that'll help us focus on getting access to tonight's studs.

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Pitchers

Joe Musgrove (FanDuel Salary: $10,900) - Musgrove comes in with the slate's highest salary, but he also rates out tops in my model and in numberFire's. Musgrove is projected by numberFire for 41.7 FanDuel points, a full 5.7 points higher than any other pitcher.

Musgrove faces a Colorado Rockies team with an active roster that ranks 26th in wRC+ and 23rd in barrel rate. One note that keeps Musgrove from being a full-on runaway tonight is that the Rockies are 10th-best in strikeout rate. That'll put to test Musgrove's stellar strikeout rate (24.8%, sixth on the slate) and even better called-strike-plus-whiff rate (31.3%, second on the slate).

Musgrove has racked up at least 6 punchouts in 8 of his 10 games and is projected for 7.39 strikeouts tonight.

Luis Severino ($10,200) - Severino ranks third among main-slate starters in both strikeout rate (27.6%) and SIERA (3.23) and faces a middling Chicago Cubs offense. Their active roster ranks 16th in strikeout rate and 14th in wRC+.

Notably, at least, Severino is allowing a 41.7% fly-ball rate, which ranks him 25th among main-slate starters today, and that's enough for my model to like Musgrove at the elevated salary over Severino.

However, both pitchers' teams have moneylines of -250 and opposing implied team totals under 2.80 (it's 2.79 for the Cubs against Severino and 2.46 for the Rockies against Musgrove).

Severino has notched 8, 7, 5, 8, and 10 strikeouts in his past five starts, starts that have seen him average 96.2 pitches -- up from 81.2 in his first five starts.

I'd like to get to Musgrove (again, we'll have value with hitters to do so), but if not, Severino is the option who stands out most at the top of the board.

Aaron Ashby ($8,600) - As a starter in his past three games, Ashby has gone at least 5.2 innings (and 6.0 in each of the past two starts) with 5, 12, and 9 strikeouts. That's to be expected with his slate-leading called-strike-plus-whiff rate of 34.1%. Overall, his strikeout rate this season is 30.5%, and it's up to 35.1% in this three-game sample as a starter (while maintaining a 2.52 FIP).

Why not start every lineup with Ashby, then, and take the savings from the other guys? Matchup is part of it. While the Washington Nationals' active-roster wRC+ ranks them 20th, they're 3rd-best in strikeout rate (19.0%).

Despite all that, Ashby should have enough juice to score some K's (he's 5th in my projected strikeout rate model) and is a -180 favorite, as well.

Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays
The top stack of the night pretty much has to be the Toronto Blue Jays against Elvin Rodriguez.

Rodriguez, against 72 batters faced this season, has given up a 52.0% fly-ball rate despite a 17.6% hard-hit rate. He ultimately has a 5.04 xFIP and a 4.65 SIERA -- unimposing numbers for sure.

Toronto enters with a slate-best implied run total of 6.10 and, as a team, the fourth-best expected wOBA (.351) in the Majors.

While the top of the order -- George Springer ($3,900), Bo Bichette ($3,900), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,000) -- requires hefty salary cap space, Teoscar Hernandez ($2,800), Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), and the boys are available to round out a Jays stack with some salary relief.

Baltimore Orioles
Though the Baltimore Orioles actually rank best in my model for the night, the Jays have the better case. But don't sleep on these birds either.

Baltimore's 4.93 implied run total is quite nice, and they'll face a bullpen with a dreadful 114 xFIP-. Once they get past Jon Heasley -- who is allowing a 41.5% fly-ball rate and a 30.5% hard-hit rate with a meager 12.8% strikeout rate and an awful 6.30 SIERA -- things will still stay positive.

Of course, the O's active-roster wRC+ is a middling 99, yet their 8.3% team barrel rate does rank them 12th in the bigs. League-average rates in expected slugging (.427) and expected wOBA (.322) are enough in such a plush matchup.

Baltimore will stack better than the Blue Jays with Musgrove or Severino due to the lower salaries. Cedric Mullins ($3,100), Trey Mancini ($3,100), Anthony Santander ($3,100), and Austin Hays ($3,200) leave plenty of wiggle room for another value stack even with a high-salaried arm attached.

New York Mets
With 15 games, we will really need to take a look at high-salaried stacks and not get careless. Again, Toronto rates out really well. So do the New York Yankees.

But another stack that won't cost you too much to roster and that has a strong case is the New York Mets.

Jhonathan Diaz is projected to start tonight for the Los Angeles Angels. Across 55 batters in 2022, Diaz has let up a 40.5% hard-hit rate and a 5.20 SIERA (despite a 1.32 ERA). He's maintained a 20.9% strikeout rate and 4.67 FIP against AAA competition this season.

The Mets will meet him with a low strikeout rate of their own (19.4%) and a league-best active-roster wRC+ (121). The wRC+ is 110 against lefties specifically.

Brandon Nimmo ($2,900) and Francisco Lindor ($4,100) were joined by Mark Canha ($2,700) and J.D. Davis ($2,300) in the top four last game against a lefty.