3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/15/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jose Ramirez To Hit a Home Run (+280)
For a home run today, we're going to one of the best hitters in the league in the best hitting environment.
That would be Jose Ramirez, who is on the road in Coors Field, which is always a great spot to look for home runs. The Cleveland Guardians have a big 5.64 implied run total, and with it over 90 degrees at Coors Field, we are dealing with elite hitting weather.
Ramirez is off to a very strong start this season and comes in with a 109 wRC+, a .237 ISO, a .320 wOBA, a 57.9% fly-ball rate, and a 31.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. His numbers are even better versus right-handed pitchers, so if/when this game gets to the Colorado Rockies' bullpen, it remains an elite spot for him.
He's going up against Austin Gomber, who is allowing a .520 SLG, a .380 wOBA, a 4.26 xFIP, 1.66 HR/9, and a 34.1% fly-ball rate versus right-handed hitters this season. It's a great matchup, and there's not much more to say.
James Kaprielian Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+136)
Even with a low strikeout prop, the under is the spot to look for James Kaprielian tonight.
Kaprielian's strikeout prop is at 3.5 tonight, and I'm going with the under at plus money. Kaprielian has been under the 3.5 mark in six of his eight starts this season and comes in sporting a 15.6% strikeout rate this season.
Among pitchers (142) with at least 35.0 innings pitched this season, Kaprielian's strikeout rate is the ninth-lowest in the league. He simply isn't a big-time strike-out pitcher; there's no other way to put it.
He's going up against the Boston Red Sox, who come in with a 20.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is 24th in the league. They are very, very disciplined at the plate and are not freely swinging at every pitch.
Combine that with the fact the Red Sox are in the top half of the league in both wRC+ and ISO versus right-handed pitchers, and this could be a short outing for Kaprielian.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. To Record an RBI (+105)
I've been all over the Toronto Blue Jays and their player props the past few days, and that isn't stopping tonight.
This shouldn't come as a surprise since they've been taking on the Baltimore Orioles, who have bad pitchers, making things really straightforward for the opposing hitters.
Bruce Zimmermann is on the mound tonight and he comes in allowing a .546 SLG, a 4.73 xFIP, a .377 wOBA, 1.89 HR/9, and a 41.6% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters this season. The Blue Jays are carrying a big 5.55 implied run total, and with their right-handed-dominant lineup, we could see them push past that total in a hurry.
We turn to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who comes in with a 167 wRC+, a .310 ISO, a .407 wOBA, a 40.7% hard-contact rate, and a 37.5% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. He hits in the heart of the Blue Jays' lineup and should be in a great spot to pick up an RBI. With that said, it's reasonable to add Guerrero 2+ RBI (+370) with this being a favorable matchup.