MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 6/23/22

Betting MLB player props or playing daily fantasy baseball? See who is most likely to homer, rack up the most strikeouts, and score the most runs today.

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADHunter
Greene
9.05.2743.1%27.8%16.3%8.7%4.3%
ATLAlex
Wood
9.55.1841.6%26.5%15.3%8.0%3.9%
MINZach
Plesac
9.55.0739.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
CHWDean
Kremer
9.04.9237.0%22.6%12.5%6.3%2.9%
STLJason
Alexander
9.54.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
MILDakota
Hudson
9.54.7133.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
MIAKyle
Freeland
8.54.5029.7%16.9%8.7%4.0%1.7%
CLEDevin
Smeltzer
9.54.4328.5%16.0%8.1%3.7%1.6%
NYYFramber
Valdez
8.54.4128.2%15.8%7.9%3.6%1.5%
SFKyle
Wright
9.54.3226.7%14.7%7.3%3.2%1.3%
CHCJose
Quintana
8.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
PITJustin
Steele
8.54.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
HOUJameson
Taillon
8.54.0922.9%12.0%5.7%2.4%0.9%
BALJohnny
Cueto
9.04.0822.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
SDRanger
Suarez
7.54.0622.4%11.7%5.5%2.3%0.9%
COLBraxton
Garrett
8.54.0021.5%11.1%5.1%2.1%0.8%
CINClayton
Kershaw
9.03.7317.4%8.4%3.7%1.4%0.5%
SEAFrankie
Montas
7.03.6816.7%8.0%3.4%1.3%0.5%
PHIJoe
Musgrove
7.53.4413.5%6.1%2.4%0.9%0.3%
OAKRobbie
Ray
7.03.3212.0%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Joe
Musgrove
PHI7.393.3%85.3%73.6%59.4%44.6%31.1%20.1%
Frankie
Montas
SEA6.387.2%75.1%59.8%43.9%29.5%18.3%10.5%
Kyle
Wright
SF6.084.8%71.4%55.3%39.2%25.5%15.2%8.3%
Robbie
Ray
OAK5.984.2%70.4%54.1%38.1%24.5%14.5%7.9%
Clayton
Kershaw
CIN5.580.2%64.7%47.6%31.9%19.4%10.8%5.5%
Framber
Valdez
NYY5.579.9%64.4%47.3%31.6%19.2%10.6%5.4%
Johnny
Cueto
BAL5.377.7%61.4%44.0%28.6%16.9%9.1%4.5%
Hunter
Greene
LAD5.377.3%60.9%43.5%28.1%16.5%8.9%4.4%
Alex
Wood
ATL5.174.2%56.8%39.3%24.5%13.9%7.1%3.4%
Ranger
Suarez
SD5.072.8%55.1%37.5%23.1%12.8%6.5%3.0%
Jameson
Taillon
HOU4.971.5%53.5%35.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
Jose
Quintana
CHC4.464.4%45.3%28.3%15.9%8.0%3.7%1.5%
Braxton
Garrett
COL4.363.0%43.7%27.0%14.9%7.4%3.3%1.4%
Jason
Alexander
STL4.362.5%43.1%26.5%14.5%7.2%3.2%1.3%
Kyle
Freeland
MIA4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Justin
Steele
PIT4.260.6%41.2%24.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
Dakota
Hudson
MIL4.159.0%39.5%23.4%12.4%5.9%2.5%1.0%
Devin
Smeltzer
CLE4.055.9%36.3%20.9%10.7%4.9%2.0%0.8%
Zach
Plesac
MIN4.055.7%36.1%20.7%10.6%4.8%2.0%0.7%
Dean
Kremer
CHW3.546.3%27.5%14.2%6.5%2.7%1.0%0.3%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
Park
Factor
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Probability
xHR
Odds
Byron
Buxton
MINNo98Zach
Plesac
22.5%+344
Trea
Turner
LADNo111Hunter
Greene
22.5%+345
Will
Smith
LADNo111Hunter
Greene
21.9%+356
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes109Jameson
Taillon
21.4%+367
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
21.1%+374
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
21.1%+374
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo103Jason
Alexander
20.8%+381
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
20.7%+384
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
20.7%+384
Anthony
Santander
BALYes111Johnny
Cueto
20.5%+387
Evan
Longoria
SFNo97Kyle
Wright
19.9%+403
Austin
Riley
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
19.2%+421
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo103Jason
Alexander
19.1%+424
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes92Justin
Steele
19.0%+427
Brandon
Drury
CINYes111Clayton
Kershaw
18.6%+437
Trevor
Larnach
MINYes99Zach
Plesac
18.3%+447
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
18.1%+451
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo96Joe
Musgrove
18.1%+453
Rougned
Odor
BALYes111Johnny
Cueto
18.0%+455
Josh
Naylor
CLENo99Devin
Smeltzer
17.9%+458
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
17.7%+465
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
17.7%+465
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
17.7%+465
Max
Muncy
LADYes113Hunter
Greene
17.6%+469
Adam
Duvall
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
17.4%+475
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes95Joe
Musgrove
17.1%+484
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo106Johnny
Cueto
17.1%+486
Chris
Taylor
LADNo111Hunter
Greene
17.0%+487
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes113Hunter
Greene
16.9%+492
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes113Hunter
Greene
16.9%+492
Brandon
Belt
SFYes100Kyle
Wright
16.6%+503
Justin
Turner
LADNo111Hunter
Greene
16.3%+512
Franmil
Reyes
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
16.3%+515
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo94Frankie
Montas
16.1%+522
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
16.0%+523
Luke
Voit
SDYes96Ranger
Suarez
16.0%+526
Joc
Pederson
SFYes100Kyle
Wright
16.0%+527
Seby
Zavala
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
15.7%+535
Luis
Robert
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
15.7%+535
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes109Jameson
Taillon
15.7%+536
Taylor
Trammell
SEAYes92Frankie
Montas
15.5%+544
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
15.5%+547
Jazz
Chisholm
MIANo92Kyle
Freeland
15.4%+548
Willy
Adames
MILNo103Dakota
Hudson
15.4%+550
Juan
Yepez
STLNo103Jason
Alexander
15.4%+550
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes95Joe
Musgrove
15.3%+553
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes99Zach
Plesac
15.2%+559
C.J.
Cron
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
15.2%+559
Jesus
Aguilar
MIAYes90Kyle
Freeland
15.2%+559
Chad
Pinder
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
15.1%+563
Justin
Upton
SEANo94Frankie
Montas
14.9%+572
Matt
Olson
ATLNo100Alex
Wood
14.9%+572
Rowdy
Tellez
MILYes101Dakota
Hudson
14.8%+577
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo96Joe
Musgrove
14.5%+589
Sean
Murphy
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
14.4%+594
Charlie
Blackmon
COLNo92Braxton
Garrett
14.4%+594
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo94Frankie
Montas
14.3%+601
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Zach
Plesac
14.1%+608
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
14.1%+609
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes101Jason
Alexander
14.1%+610
Hunter
Renfroe
MILNo103Dakota
Hudson
14.0%+612
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes100Kyle
Wright
14.0%+616
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes92Frankie
Montas
13.7%+632
Christian
Yelich
MILYes101Dakota
Hudson
13.4%+647
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
13.4%+648
Jorge
Soler
MIAYes90Kyle
Freeland
13.3%+655
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes111Johnny
Cueto
12.9%+672
P.J.
Higgins
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
12.8%+680
Joey
Votto
CINNo113Clayton
Kershaw
12.6%+692
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Ranger
Suarez
12.6%+694
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo92Braxton
Garrett
12.3%+715
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
12.2%+720
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
12.0%+736
Dylan
Carlson
STLYes101Jason
Alexander
11.9%+737
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
11.8%+746
Jesus
Sanchez
MIANo92Kyle
Freeland
11.7%+754
Michael
Chavis
PITYes92Justin
Steele
11.4%+775
Owen
Miller
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
11.3%+783
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes97Alex
Wood
11.2%+791
Brian
Serven
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
11.2%+792
Tyrone
Taylor
MILNo103Dakota
Hudson
11.2%+796
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
11.0%+807
Jonah
Bride
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
10.9%+816
Tommy
Pham
CINYes111Clayton
Kershaw
10.9%+816
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Framber
Valdez
10.9%+817
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Zach
Plesac
10.7%+836
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Zach
Plesac
10.7%+836
Eddy
Alvarez
LADYes113Hunter
Greene
10.7%+837
Danny
Mendick
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
10.7%+837
Jake
Burger
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
10.7%+837
Jose
Iglesias
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
10.5%+852
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
10.5%+852
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes90Kyle
Freeland
10.5%+852
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
10.2%+883
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes111Clayton
Kershaw
10.0%+897
Seth
Brown
OAKNo92Robbie
Ray
10.0%+902
Austin
Hays
BALNo106Johnny
Cueto
9.9%+912
Connor
Joe
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
9.8%+921
Jace
Peterson
MILYes101Dakota
Hudson
9.7%+935
Jack
Suwinski
PITNo95Justin
Steele
9.7%+936
Martin
Maldonado
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
9.6%+938
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
9.6%+938
Yu
Chang
PITYes92Justin
Steele
9.2%+983
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINYes111Clayton
Kershaw
9.1%+995
Adam
Engel
CHWNo106Dean
Kremer
9.1%+1002
Miguel
Rojas
MIAYes90Kyle
Freeland
9.1%+1004
Tommy
Edman
STLYes101Jason
Alexander
8.9%+1027
Luis
Urias
MILNo103Dakota
Hudson
8.8%+1031
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes96Ranger
Suarez
8.8%+1035
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes100Kyle
Wright
8.8%+1038
Christian
Bethancourt
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
8.6%+1057
Tyler
Nevin
BALNo106Johnny
Cueto
8.2%+1113
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
8.2%+1126
Gavin
Lux
LADYes113Hunter
Greene
8.0%+1147
Max
Kepler
MINYes99Zach
Plesac
7.9%+1163
Ramon
Laureano
OAKYes94Robbie
Ray
7.9%+1174
Nico
Hoerner
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
7.7%+1199
Avisail
Garcia
MIAYes90Kyle
Freeland
7.5%+1225
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo106Johnny
Cueto
7.4%+1251
Myles
Straw
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
7.3%+1266
Jonathan
India
CINYes111Clayton
Kershaw
7.3%+1277
Andrew
McCutchen
MILNo103Dakota
Hudson
7.2%+1287
Yulieski
Gurriel
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
7.2%+1287
Tommy
La
Stella
SFYes100Kyle
Wright
7.2%+1295
Trent
Grisham
SDNo95Ranger
Suarez
7.1%+1306
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo95Ranger
Suarez
7.1%+1306
Ian
Happ
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
6.9%+1348
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
6.9%+1348
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes95Joe
Musgrove
6.8%+1363
Aaron
Hicks
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
6.8%+1376
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes103Framber
Valdez
6.8%+1376
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes90Braxton
Garrett
6.8%+1377
Trey
Mancini
BALNo106Johnny
Cueto
6.5%+1428
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
6.5%+1445
Ernie
Clement
CLEYes98Devin
Smeltzer
6.5%+1445
Hoy
Park
PITNo95Justin
Steele
6.4%+1450
Aledmys
Diaz
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
6.4%+1469
Harrison
Bader
STLNo103Jason
Alexander
6.4%+1469
Jose
Siri
HOUNo103Jameson
Taillon
6.4%+1469
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Ranger
Suarez
6.3%+1475
Austin
Nola
SDYes96Ranger
Suarez
6.3%+1475
Luis
Arraez
MINYes99Zach
Plesac
6.3%+1494
Yan
Gomes
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
6.1%+1539
Jonathan
Villar
CHCYes92Jose
Quintana
6.1%+1539