MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Wednesday 6/29/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
LADGerman
Marquez
11.06.2559.4%43.4%29.1%18.0%10.2%
NYYCole
Irvin
8.55.2442.6%27.4%16.0%8.5%4.1%
WSHMitch
Keller
9.55.0138.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
ATLRanger
Suarez
9.04.7934.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
COLJulio
Urias
11.04.7534.0%20.2%10.9%5.3%2.4%
TORNick
Pivetta
8.54.6832.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
SFRony
Garcia
8.04.6632.5%19.0%10.0%4.8%2.1%
TEXZack
Greinke
9.04.6532.3%18.9%9.9%4.8%2.1%
CLEDylan
Bundy
9.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
LAAMichael
Kopech
8.04.5230.0%17.2%8.8%4.1%1.8%
PITPaolo
Espino
9.54.4929.5%16.8%8.6%4.0%1.7%
MINCal
Quantrill
9.04.4829.4%16.6%8.5%3.9%1.7%
SDMadison
Bumgarner
8.54.4729.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
KCDane
Dunning
9.04.3527.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
CHCHunter
Greene
8.04.2325.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
SEAAustin
Voth
8.04.2325.2%13.6%6.6%2.9%1.2%
PHIKyle
Wright
9.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
TBEric
Lauer
8.04.2024.7%13.3%6.4%2.8%1.1%
MIAAndre
Pallante
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
HOUTaijuan
Walker
8.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
ARIMike
Clevinger
8.54.0322.0%11.4%5.3%2.2%0.9%
NYMJustin
Verlander
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
STLSandy
Alcantara
8.03.8519.2%9.6%4.3%1.7%0.6%
BOSAlek
Manoah
8.53.8218.7%9.3%4.1%1.6%0.6%
MILJalen
Beeks
8.03.8018.4%9.1%4.0%1.6%0.6%
BALChris
Flexen
8.03.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
CINJustin
Steele
8.03.7718.0%8.8%3.9%1.5%0.5%
CHWShohei
Ohtani
8.03.4814.0%6.4%2.6%1.0%0.3%
DETAlex
Wood
8.03.3412.2%5.4%2.1%0.7%0.2%
OAKJameson
Taillon
8.53.2611.2%4.8%1.9%0.6%0.2%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
CHW7.393.1%84.9%73.1%58.8%44.0%30.5%19.7%
Alek
Manoah
BOS6.588.8%77.6%63.1%47.3%32.7%20.8%12.3%
Sandy
Alcantara
STL6.487.7%75.9%60.9%45.0%30.5%19.1%11.0%
Kyle
Wright
PHI6.387.2%75.1%59.8%43.9%29.5%18.3%10.5%
Nick
Pivetta
TOR5.781.8%67.0%50.2%34.2%21.3%12.2%6.4%
Eric
Lauer
TB5.681.4%66.4%49.5%33.6%20.8%11.8%6.1%
Justin
Verlander
NYM5.478.7%62.7%45.4%29.8%17.8%9.7%4.9%
Ranger
Suarez
ATL5.276.6%59.9%42.4%27.2%15.8%8.4%4.1%
Alex
Wood
DET5.174.9%57.7%40.2%25.3%14.4%7.5%3.6%
Jameson
Taillon
OAK5.174.7%57.5%40.0%25.1%14.3%7.4%3.5%
Julio
Urias
COL5.174.5%57.2%39.6%24.8%14.1%7.3%3.4%
Hunter
Greene
CHC5.174.3%57.0%39.5%24.7%14.0%7.2%3.4%
Mike
Clevinger
ARI5.073.6%56.1%38.6%23.9%13.4%6.9%3.2%
Justin
Steele
CIN4.769.2%50.7%33.3%19.7%10.5%5.1%2.2%
Michael
Kopech
LAA4.768.4%49.8%32.5%19.0%10.0%4.8%2.1%
Taijuan
Walker
HOU4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
German
Marquez
LAD4.667.8%49.1%31.8%18.5%9.7%4.6%2.0%
Chris
Flexen
BAL4.566.4%47.5%30.4%17.4%9.0%4.2%1.8%
Dane
Dunning
KC4.564.9%45.8%28.9%16.3%8.3%3.8%1.6%
Mitch
Keller
WSH4.464.1%44.9%28.0%15.6%7.9%3.6%1.5%
Cole
Irvin
NYY4.463.2%43.9%27.2%15.0%7.5%3.4%1.4%
Cal
Quantrill
MIN4.260.8%41.4%25.0%13.5%6.5%2.9%1.1%
Madison
Bumgarner
SD4.158.8%39.3%23.2%12.2%5.8%2.5%1.0%
Paolo
Espino
PIT4.158.2%38.7%22.7%11.9%5.6%2.4%0.9%
Dylan
Bundy
CLE4.057.4%37.9%22.1%11.5%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Andre
Pallante
MIA4.056.5%36.9%21.3%11.0%5.1%2.1%0.8%
Rony
Garcia
SF3.853.3%33.8%18.9%9.4%4.2%1.7%0.6%
Zack
Greinke
TEX3.545.3%26.5%13.6%6.2%2.5%0.9%0.3%
Austin
Voth
SEA3.443.5%25.0%12.6%5.6%2.2%0.8%0.3%
Jalen
Beeks
MIL2.320.5%8.6%3.1%1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Notes: The "Platoon?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Platoon? HR
PF
Opp
Pitcher
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes94Alek
Manoah
25.7%+290
Aaron
Judge
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
25.3%+295
Mike
Trout
LAANo103Michael
Kopech
25.1%+300
Teoscar
Hernandez
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
24.4%+310
Marcell
Ozuna
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
23.9%+320
Byron
Buxton
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
23.2%+330
Trea
Turner
LADNo108German
Marquez
23.1%+335
Bryan
Reynolds
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
22.8%+340
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Rony
Garcia
22.4%+345
Ian
Happ
CHCYes96Hunter
Greene
22.1%+355
George
Springer
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
22.0%+355
Willson
Contreras
CHCNo103Hunter
Greene
21.8%+360
C.J.
Cron
COLYes108Julio
Urias
21.4%+370
Jorge
Soler
MIANo91Andre
Pallante
20.9%+380
Will
Smith
LADNo108German
Marquez
20.4%+390
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Chris
Flexen
20.2%+395
Jose
Altuve
HOUNo98Taijuan
Walker
20.0%+400
Austin
Riley
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
19.8%+405
Seth
Brown
OAKYes109Jameson
Taillon
19.7%+410
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Rony
Garcia
19.6%+410
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo110Kyle
Wright
19.5%+415
Manny
Machado
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
19.1%+420
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCNo103Hunter
Greene
19.1%+425
Christopher
Morel
CHCNo103Hunter
Greene
19.1%+425
Cody
Bellinger
LADYes109German
Marquez
19.0%+425
Christian
Walker
ARINo93Mike
Clevinger
18.7%+435
Jazz
Chisholm
MIAYes97Andre
Pallante
18.6%+440
Max
Muncy
LADYes109German
Marquez
18.4%+445
Nelson
Cruz
WSHNo106Mitch
Keller
18.3%+445
Kyle
Tucker
HOUYes95Taijuan
Walker
18.3%+445
Matt
Chapman
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
18.2%+450
Giancarlo
Stanton
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
18.2%+450
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
18.2%+450
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Austin
Voth
18.0%+455
Carlos
Correa
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
18.0%+455
Taylor
Ward
LAANo103Michael
Kopech
17.9%+460
Adam
Duvall
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
17.8%+460
Dan
Vogelbach
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
17.8%+465
Yordan
Alvarez
HOUYes95Taijuan
Walker
17.7%+465
Anthony
Rizzo
NYYNo109Cole
Irvin
17.7%+465
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes108Shohei
Ohtani
17.6%+465
Josh
Naylor
CLEYes103Dylan
Bundy
17.6%+470
Josh
Donaldson
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
17.6%+470
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes106Kyle
Wright
17.4%+475
Pete
Alonso
NYMNo98Justin
Verlander
17.2%+480
Ronald
Acuna
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
17.1%+485
Freddie
Freeman
LADYes109German
Marquez
17.1%+485
Jared
Walsh
LAAYes108Michael
Kopech
17.0%+490
Willy
Adames
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
17.0%+490
Corey
Seager
TEXYes92Zack
Greinke
16.7%+500
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXYes92Zack
Greinke
16.7%+500
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo103Shohei
Ohtani
16.7%+500
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo103Shohei
Ohtani
16.7%+500
Anthony
Santander
BALYes96Chris
Flexen
16.7%+500
Eduardo
Escobar
NYMYes95Justin
Verlander
16.5%+505
Brandon
Drury
CINYes103Justin
Steele
16.2%+515
Luke
Voit
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
16.2%+515
Trey
Mancini
BALNo99Chris
Flexen
16.2%+520
Franmil
Reyes
CLENo99Dylan
Bundy
16.2%+520
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes92Zack
Greinke
16.1%+520
Evan
Longoria
SFNo90Rony
Garcia
16.1%+520
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Rony
Garcia
16.1%+520
Chris
Taylor
LADNo108German
Marquez
16.0%+525
Ryan
McMahon
COLNo109Julio
Urias
16.0%+525
Eric
Hosmer
SDNo99Madison
Bumgarner
15.9%+530
Daulton
Varsho
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
15.8%+530
Mitch
Garver
TEXNo92Zack
Greinke
15.8%+530
Jack
Suwinski
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
15.8%+535
Garrett
Cooper
MIANo91Andre
Pallante
15.7%+540
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes96Chris
Flexen
15.4%+550
Jeremy
Pena
HOUNo98Taijuan
Walker
15.4%+550
Vladimir
Guerrero
Jr.
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
15.1%+560
Paul
Goldschmidt
STLNo91Sandy
Alcantara
15.1%+565
Nolan
Arenado
STLNo91Sandy
Alcantara
15.1%+565
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes103Dylan
Bundy
15.0%+565
Tommy
Pham
CINYes103Justin
Steele
14.8%+575
Gleyber
Torres
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
14.8%+575
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo103Jameson
Taillon
14.7%+580
Kris
Bryant
COLYes108Julio
Urias
14.7%+580
Matt
Olson
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
14.4%+595
Josh
Bell
WSHYes104Mitch
Keller
14.4%+595
Darin
Ruf
SFNo90Rony
Garcia
14.4%+595
Jonathan
India
CINYes103Justin
Steele
14.1%+610
Francisco
Lindor
NYMYes95Justin
Verlander
14.0%+615
Jonathan
Schoop
DETYes90Alex
Wood
13.9%+620
Bobby
Dalbec
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
13.8%+625
Jesus
Sanchez
MIAYes97Andre
Pallante
13.6%+635
Max
Kepler
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
13.6%+635
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
13.6%+635
Shohei
Ohtani
LAAYes108Michael
Kopech
13.4%+645
Albert
Almora
Jr.
CINYes103Justin
Steele
13.4%+650
Travis
d'Arnaud
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
13.3%+650
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
13.1%+660
Lourdes
Gurriel
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
13.1%+660
Brendan
Rodgers
COLYes108Julio
Urias
13.1%+660
Luis
Urias
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
13.1%+665
Isaac
Paredes
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
13.1%+665
Juan
Soto
WSHYes104Mitch
Keller
13.0%+670
Oneil
Cruz
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
13.0%+670
Justin
Upton
SEANo99Austin
Voth
12.9%+675
Gio
Urshela
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
12.9%+675
Ryan
Jeffers
MINNo99Cal
Quantrill
12.9%+675
Andres
Gimenez
CLEYes103Dylan
Bundy
12.9%+675
Rougned
Odor
BALYes96Chris
Flexen
12.8%+680
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Austin
Voth
12.8%+680
Jake
Lamb
LADYes109German
Marquez
12.7%+685
Yoan
Moncada
CHWYes108Shohei
Ohtani
12.6%+690
David
Bote
CHCNo103Hunter
Greene
12.6%+690
Kyle
Farmer
CINYes103Justin
Steele
12.6%+695
Dansby
Swanson
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
12.5%+700
Trevor
Story
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
12.4%+705
Trayce
Thompson
LADNo108German
Marquez
12.4%+705
Yandy
Diaz
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
12.4%+710
Julio
Rodriguez
SEANo99Austin
Voth
12.2%+720
Adolis
Garcia
TEXNo92Zack
Greinke
12.1%+725
Jesus
Aguilar
MIANo91Andre
Pallante
12.0%+735
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo103Shohei
Ohtani
11.9%+740
Luis
Robert
CHWNo103Shohei
Ohtani
11.9%+740
David
Peralta
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
11.7%+750
Alek
Thomas
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
11.7%+750
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
11.7%+755
Robert
Refsnyder
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
11.7%+755
Bo
Bichette
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
11.7%+755
Alejandro
Kirk
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
11.7%+755
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
11.6%+760
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes108Julio
Urias
11.5%+770
Elias
Diaz
COLYes108Julio
Urias
11.5%+770
Hunter
Dozier
KCNo92Dane
Dunning
11.5%+775
Rafael
Ortega
CHCYes96Hunter
Greene
11.4%+775
Abraham
Toro
SEAYes96Austin
Voth
11.4%+775
Brandon
Marsh
LAAYes108Michael
Kopech
11.1%+805
DJ
LeMahieu
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
11.0%+805
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
10.9%+815
Randy
Arozarena
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
10.9%+815
Orlando
Arcia
ATLYes110Ranger
Suarez
10.8%+825
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Chris
Flexen
10.8%+830
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Chris
Flexen
10.8%+830
Josh
VanMeter
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
10.7%+835
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes96Chris
Flexen
10.7%+835
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Rony
Garcia
10.6%+845
Brandon
Belt
SFYes87Rony
Garcia
10.5%+855
Tim
Anderson
CHWNo103Shohei
Ohtani
10.4%+860
Joey
Votto
CINNo96Justin
Steele
10.4%+865
Jose
Trevino
NYYYes103Cole
Irvin
10.2%+880
Harold
Ramirez
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
10.2%+885
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCNo92Dane
Dunning
10.1%+890
Didi
Gregorius
PHIYes106Kyle
Wright
10.1%+890
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
10.1%+890
Justin
Turner
LADNo108German
Marquez
10.0%+895
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLENo99Dylan
Bundy
10.0%+895
Hoy
Park
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
9.9%+910
Curt
Casali
SFNo90Rony
Garcia
9.9%+910
Alex
Kirilloff
MINYes103Cal
Quantrill
9.8%+915
Javier
Baez
DETYes90Alex
Wood
9.8%+920
Kole
Calhoun
TEXYes92Zack
Greinke
9.6%+940
Francisco
Mejia
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
9.4%+960
Aramis
Garcia
CINYes103Justin
Steele
9.4%+965
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Austin
Voth
9.2%+985
Jason
Heyward
CHCYes96Hunter
Greene
9.2%+985
Lane
Thomas
WSHNo106Mitch
Keller
9.1%+1000
Spencer
Torkelson
DETYes90Alex
Wood
9.1%+1005
Steven
Kwan
CLEYes103Dylan
Bundy
9.0%+1010
Nicky
Lopez
KCYes92Dane
Dunning
8.9%+1025
MJ
Melendez
KCYes92Dane
Dunning
8.9%+1025
Sheldon
Neuse
OAKNo103Jameson
Taillon
8.8%+1030
Jake
Cronenworth
SDNo99Madison
Bumgarner
8.7%+1045
Victor
Caratini
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
8.6%+1055
Keston
Hiura
MILYes94Jalen
Beeks
8.6%+1055
Vidal
Brujan
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
8.6%+1055
Stephen
Vogt
OAKYes109Jameson
Taillon
8.6%+1060
Andrew
Velazquez
LAAYes108Michael
Kopech
8.6%+1065
Nick
Castellanos
PHINo110Kyle
Wright
8.5%+1070
Jonathan
Arauz
BALYes96Chris
Flexen
8.5%+1080
Jesse
Winker
SEAYes96Austin
Voth
8.5%+1080
Alfonso
Rivas
CHCYes96Hunter
Greene
8.5%+1080
Yadiel
Hernandez
WSHYes104Mitch
Keller
8.3%+1110
Luis
Garcia
WSHNo106Mitch
Keller
8.2%+1115
Buddy
Kennedy
ARINo93Mike
Clevinger
8.1%+1140
Avisail
Garcia
MIANo91Andre
Pallante
7.9%+1165
Juan
Yepez
STLNo91Sandy
Alcantara
7.9%+1165
Wander
Franco
TBYes94Eric
Lauer
7.9%+1175
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.8%+1185
Nolan
Gorman
STLYes97Sandy
Alcantara
7.8%+1185
Luke
Maile
CLENo99Dylan
Bundy
7.7%+1190
Myles
Straw
CLENo99Dylan
Bundy
7.7%+1190
Reese
McGuire
CHWYes108Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1200
Starling
Marte
NYMNo98Justin
Verlander
7.7%+1205
Bryson
Stott
PHIYes106Kyle
Wright
7.6%+1220
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes94Alek
Manoah
7.5%+1225
Eric
Haase
DETYes90Alex
Wood
7.5%+1225
Cesar
Hernandez
WSHYes104Mitch
Keller
7.4%+1245
Maikel
Franco
WSHNo106Mitch
Keller
7.4%+1250
Marcus
Semien
TEXNo92Zack
Greinke
7.2%+1280
Stephen
Piscotty
OAKNo103Jameson
Taillon
7.2%+1285
Miguel
Rojas
MIANo91Andre
Pallante
7.2%+1295
Michael
Harris
II
ATLNo106Ranger
Suarez
7.1%+1300
Geraldo
Perdomo
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
7.1%+1310
Connor
Joe
COLYes108Julio
Urias
7.1%+1310
Tommy
La
Stella
SFYes87Rony
Garcia
7.0%+1325
Jose
Azocar
SDYes93Madison
Bumgarner
7.0%+1335
Alex
Bregman
HOUNo98Taijuan
Walker
6.9%+1350
Jake
Meyers
HOUNo98Taijuan
Walker
6.9%+1350
J.J.
Matijevic
HOUYes95Taijuan
Walker
6.8%+1365
Matt
Reynolds
CINYes103Justin
Steele
6.8%+1375
Miguel
Cabrera
DETYes90Alex
Wood
6.8%+1375
Robbie
Grossman
DETYes90Alex
Wood
6.8%+1375
Andrew
Benintendi
KCYes92Dane
Dunning
6.6%+1405
Michael
Perez
PITYes104Paolo
Espino
6.6%+1420
Keibert
Ruiz
WSHYes104Mitch
Keller
6.6%+1420
Ke'Bryan
Hayes
PITNo106Paolo
Espino
6.5%+1430
Max
Stassi
LAANo103Michael
Kopech
6.4%+1470
Ketel
Marte
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
6.3%+1495
Josh
Rojas
ARIYes99Mike
Clevinger
6.3%+1495
Christian
Yelich
MILNo92Jalen
Beeks
6.3%+1495
Christian
Vazquez
BOSNo101Alek
Manoah
6.3%+1500
Santiago
Espinal
TORNo101Nick
Pivetta
6.3%+1500