3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/15/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Ronald Acuna To Hit a Home Run (+250)/Austin Riley To Hit a Home Run (+300)
It was all about the Atlanta Braves last night, and tonight is no different.
With a loaded 13-game slate to end the week, let's jump into some home run props. Last night, I was big on Dansby Swanson for some RBIs, and tonight, we are turning to two of his teammates for home runs. That would be Ronald Acuna and Austin Riley, who have an elite matchup against Patrick Corbin.
This season, Corbin is getting blasted by right-handed hitters and allowing a .495 SLG, .371 wOBA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.47 HR/9, 39.0% hard-contact rate, and 34.0% fly-ball rate. It's essentially a dream matchup for right-handed power-hitters, and it puts many of the Braves in a great spot.
We start with Acuna, who comes in with a 150 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .220 ISO, 31.4% hard-contact rate, 31.4% fly-ball rate, and 27.3% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers. Acuna's hard-contact and fly-ball rates are a bit lower than we'd ideally like to see, but his numbers from last year and his career numbers are much higher.
Next up is Riley, who is carrying a 196 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .372 ISO, 51.7% hard-contact rate, 39.7% fly-ball rate, and 30.4% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers.
Of course, we also need to add Acuna To Record an RBI (+110) and Riley To Record an RBI (+105).
Clayton Kershaw Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
The veteran southpaw, Clayton Kershaw, has a juicy matchup for his strikeout prop tonight.
Kershaw is having another solid season and is sporting a 27.6% strikeout rate, 13.4% swinging-strike rate, and 2.91 xFIP. He's doing his normal thing, and that has led him to pile up seven strikeouts or more in three of his last four starts. Tonight, he has the chance to continue that trend due to a very favorable matchup against the Los Angeles Angels.
Right now, the Angels are striking out 24.7% of the time versus left-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-worst in the league. That's their rate for the whole season. If we look at the last 30 days, that rate jumps up to 26.6% in the split. If we look at the last 14 days, that rate leaps up to 31.3% The latter of the two is the worst in the league.
With this matchup, it's reasonable to add on Kershaw 8+ Strikeouts (+158) and Kershaw 9+ Strikeouts (+300).
Paul Goldschmidt To Record an RBI (+130)
With a 4.95 implied run total, the offense could be in full force for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.
After two tough losses to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Cardinals are in a spot to bounce back against the Cincinnati Reds. Hunter Greene will be on the mound for the Reds, a young pitcher who certainly has some big strikeout potential but is also getting hit very hard.
This season versus right-handed hitters, Greene is allowing a .548 SLG, .376 wOBA, 2.74 HR/9, 49.6% fly-ball rate, and 35.3% hard-contact rate. Those are some rough numbers to see, especially when the Cardinals roll out a very right-handed-heavy lineup.
This leads us to Paul Goldschmidt, who is crushing righty pitchers this season to the tune of a 162 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 42.2% fly-ball rate. His spot in the middle of the lineup is secure and should have plenty of chances to knock in some runs. As always, looking to add Goldschmidt 2+ RBI (+450).
