3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/25/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+390)
Back to the Philadelphia Phillies for a home run prop tonight.
Last night, I was on the Phillies for a few home runs, and tonight it's time to go back to the well. They have a very similar matchup today, and it should lead to some homers. They are sporting a slate-hight 5.37 implied run total and are set to take on Justin Dunn.
Dunn has only 13.0 innings pitched this season, so we'll take a look at his entire MLB career (since 2019). He's allowed a .372 wOBA, a 5.51 xFIP, 1.41 HR/9, a 52.8% fly-ball rate, and a 32.5% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. Add in the fact we have some really nice hitting weather in Philly, and there will be runs scored tonight.
We can turn to Nick Castellanos, who has some modest stats overall this season. But we need to dig a bit deeper. For the year, Castellanos has a 94 wRC+, .306 wOBA, a .143 ISO, a 40.7% fly-ball rate, and a 29.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Those numbers are below average -- there's no other way to put it.
Castellanos has been better recently, though. In the month of August versus right-handed pitchers. Castellanos has a 157 wRC+, a .399 wOBA, a .231 ISO, a 45.1% fly-ball rate, and a 33.3% hard-contact rate. Except for the hard-contact rate, all of these numbers are the best he's posted in any month of the campaign.
He's hot at the plate with a 14-game hitting streak and gets an elite matchup tonight. I'm also going to Castellanos To Record an RBI (+105).
Chris Archer Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+124)
It's time for an under on a strikeout prop.
First off, Archer isn't a big-time strikeout pitcher anymore. This season, Archer has a 20.5% strikeout rate, which is below the league average of 22.3%. Next, Archer very rarely goes deep into games, failing to reach 80 total pitchers since June 30th. This severely limits his ability to rack up strikeouts, because they do not allow him to see the lineup three times.
The matchup against the Houston Astros is also a difficult one for a few reasons. They come in with a 20.7% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the sixth-lowest in the league. They are also carrying a 112 wRC+ (sixth-best) and a .174 ISO (fifth) in this split.
We have a low strikeout pitcher facing a powerful offense, one doesn't waste chances at the plate. This is all about the under tonight.
Pete Alonso To Record an RBI (+110)
The New York Mets have a 4.60 implied run total, and it's time to get the offense going.
Things are in a delicate spot for the Mets, but they have a chance to right the ship at home against the Colorado Rockies. The Mets lost two in a row to their cross-town rivals, the New York Yankees, and see the Atlanta Braves just 1.5 games behind them in the National League East.
They will be taking on Ryan Feltner, a pitcher who should allow them to get their offense going. This season, Feltner has allowed a .491 SLG, a .357 wOBA, 1.32 HR/9, and a low 20.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters.
This leads us to Pete Alonso, who owns a 137 wRC+, a .360 wOBA, a .245 ISO, a 43.4% fly-ball rate, and a 35.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. The Mets need to get some runs on the board, and they need their best player to lead the way. I'm also going to add Alonso 2+ RBIs (+370).