3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Wednesday 8/31/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Lance Lynn, P, White Sox ($8,900)
In yesterday's values piece, I wrote up Lucas Giolito against the Kansas City Royals. It didn't go well.
But the process was solid, and that process leads me to backing Lance Lynn today in the same matchup.
Over the last 30 days, Kansas City's active roster is 28th in wOBA (.294) with the 4th-highest strikeout rate (24.7%). It's clearly a quality matchup.
Lynn has quietly been really good this year, recording a 3.26 SIERA, 25.2% strikeout rate and 4.0% walk rate in 77 1/3 innings. He's punched out 21 over his last 17 2/3 frames, permitting just four earned runs in that time, and KC's 3.66 implied total is a number we can feel good about.
On a slate with Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom, there are a few elite high-upside arms available to us. But if you're looking to save some coin at pitcher, Lynn is the way to go. We project him to total 34.1 FanDuel points and rate him as the second-best point-per-dollar hurler.
A.J. Pollock, OF, White Sox ($2,500)
One more White Sox player.
A.J. Pollock will likely hit leadoff tonight versus Kansas City lefty Kris Bubic. Any $2,500 leadoff hitter is worth looking into, and Pollock has a good track record against southpaws.
He's posted a huge .389 wOBA with the platoon advantage in 2022. The year prior, Pollock mashed his way to a .366 wOBA and 42.4% hard-hit rate in the split.
Chicago's 4.84 implied total is the night's second-best (as of early Wednesday), and Pollock is a great way to get in on the fun. With no one over $3,300, the Pale Hose pair nicely with Cole or deGrom.
Abraham Toro, 3B/2B, Mariners ($2,000)
The Seattle Mariners (4.63 implied total) are on the stacking radar against left-hander Tyler Alexander.
Alexander owns a 4.99 SIERA and 12.3% strikeout rate. He's exactly the kind of pitcher we want to stack against, and the M's offer a slew of modest- or low-salaried bats we can plug in. We really want to zero in on righties as Alexander has permitted a .347 wOBA in the split while striking out only 10.4% of hitters.
Salaried at the minimum, Abraham Toro is a perfect option for a night when we'll probably need a ton of salary at pitcher in most of our lineups. He'll have the platoon advantage versus Alexander and is projected to hit sixth. In this split this season, Toro has registered a 40.6% fly-ball rate.
I'll likely use Toro and Ty France ($2,900) as core pieces to my Seattle stacks and then mix and match the likes of Julio Rodriguez ($3,600), Eugenio Suarez ($3,500), Mitch Haniger ($3,500) and Carlos Santana ($2,300) around them.
