MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/1/22
Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?
To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.
Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.
(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)
Team Run Total Projections
| Team | Opp SP | O/U | Implied Total |
5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | Daniel Mengden | 9.0 | 5.27 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 16.3% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| BOS | Glenn Otto | 9.5 | 5.23 | 42.4% | 27.2% | 15.8% | 8.4% | 4.1% |
| ATL | Chad Kuhl | 8.0 | 5.18 | 41.6% | 26.5% | 15.3% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| TEX | Rich Hill | 9.5 | 4.27 | 25.8% | 14.1% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| CLE | Kyle Bradish | 7.5 | 4.21 | 24.8% | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| SEA | Eduardo Rodriguez | 7.5 | 4.12 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| OAK | Paolo Espino | 8.0 | 4.00 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| WSH | Ken Waldichuk | 8.0 | 4.00 | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| LAD | Chris Bassitt | 7.5 | 3.97 | 21.0% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| MIL | Merrill Kelly | 7.5 | 3.94 | 20.6% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| KC | Johnny Cueto | 9.0 | 3.73 | 17.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| ARI | Brandon Woodruff | 7.5 | 3.56 | 15.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| NYM | Clayton Kershaw | 7.5 | 3.53 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| DET | Logan Gilbert | 7.5 | 3.38 | 12.7% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| BAL | Shane Bieber | 7.5 | 3.29 | 11.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| COL | Spencer Strider | 8.0 | 2.82 | 6.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
| Pitcher | Opp | K Proj |
3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | 9+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | BAL | 7.3 | 93.1% | 84.9% | 73.1% | 58.8% | 44.0% | 30.5% | 19.7% |
| Spencer Strider | COL | 6.8 | 90.8% | 80.9% | 67.4% | 52.2% | 37.3% | 24.6% | 15.1% |
| Brandon Woodruff | ARI | 6.4 | 88.0% | 76.4% | 61.5% | 45.6% | 31.1% | 19.6% | 11.3% |
| Chris Bassitt | LAD | 6.0 | 85.0% | 71.6% | 55.6% | 39.5% | 25.7% | 15.4% | 8.5% |
| Merrill Kelly | MIL | 5.5 | 79.7% | 64.1% | 46.9% | 31.2% | 18.9% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | KC | 5.3 | 77.8% | 61.5% | 44.2% | 28.7% | 17.0% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | NYM | 5.1 | 75.3% | 58.2% | 40.7% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 3.7% |
| Logan Gilbert | DET | 4.9 | 71.3% | 53.3% | 35.8% | 21.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 2.7% |
| Daniel Mengden | CHW | 4.5 | 65.8% | 46.8% | 29.7% | 16.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Rich Hill | TEX | 4.3 | 62.3% | 43.0% | 26.3% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Kyle Bradish | CLE | 4.3 | 62.3% | 43.0% | 26.3% | 14.4% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | SEA | 4.3 | 62.1% | 42.8% | 26.2% | 14.3% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | ATL | 4.1 | 57.8% | 38.3% | 22.4% | 11.7% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Ken Waldichuk | WSH | 4.0 | 57.2% | 37.7% | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Glenn Otto | BOS | 3.7 | 50.2% | 30.9% | 16.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Paolo Espino | OAK | 3.5 | 47.2% | 28.2% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Daily Batter Home Run Projections
You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.
Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.
| Batter | Team | Split Adv? |
HR PF |
Opp SP |
HR Prob% |
xHR Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson | ATL | Yes | 100 | Chad Kuhl | 27.1% | +270 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Kyle Bradish | 25.1% | +300 |
| Rafael Devers | BOS | Yes | 93 | Glenn Otto | 23.9% | +320 |
| Austin Riley | ATL | No | 97 | Chad Kuhl | 22.8% | +340 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 21.2% | +370 |
| Mookie Betts | LAD | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 21.1% | +375 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 20.7% | +385 |
| Shea Langeliers | OAK | No | 106 | Paolo Espino | 20.7% | +385 |
| Eugenio Suarez | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 20.1% | +400 |
| Adolis Garcia | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 20.1% | +400 |
| Joey Meneses | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 19.9% | +405 |
| Corey Seager | TEX | No | 93 | Rich Hill | 18.9% | +430 |
| Daulton Varsho | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 18.9% | +430 |
| William Contreras | ATL | No | 97 | Chad Kuhl | 18.8% | +430 |
| Hunter Renfroe | MIL | No | 93 | Merrill Kelly | 18.7% | +435 |
| Lane Thomas | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 18.6% | +435 |
| Seth Brown | OAK | Yes | 104 | Paolo Espino | 18.4% | +445 |
| Jonah Heim | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 18.3% | +445 |
| Rowdy Tellez | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 18.3% | +445 |
| Marcus Semien | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 17.7% | +465 |
| Ty France | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 17.7% | +465 |
| Nick Pratto | KC | Yes | 111 | Johnny Cueto | 17.3% | +475 |
| Anthony Santander | BAL | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 17.0% | +490 |
| Josh Naylor | CLE | Yes | 103 | Kyle Bradish | 17.0% | +490 |
| Pete Alonso | NYM | Yes | 98 | Clayton Kershaw | 16.9% | +490 |
| Tyler Naquin | NYM | No | 95 | Clayton Kershaw | 16.9% | +495 |
| Xander Bogaerts | BOS | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 16.8% | +495 |
| MJ Melendez | KC | Yes | 111 | Johnny Cueto | 16.7% | +500 |
| C.J. Cron | COL | No | 97 | Spencer Strider | 16.5% | +505 |
| Kolten Wong | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 16.5% | +505 |
| Carlos Santana | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 16.4% | +510 |
| Mitch Haniger | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 16.4% | +510 |
| Christian Walker | ARI | No | 93 | Brandon Woodruff | 16.0% | +525 |
| Willy Adames | MIL | No | 93 | Merrill Kelly | 16.0% | +525 |
| Jose Abreu | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 15.7% | +535 |
| Mark Mathias | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 15.7% | +535 |
| Julio Rodriguez | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 15.7% | +535 |
| Trea Turner | LAD | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 15.4% | +550 |
| Carson Kelly | ARI | No | 93 | Brandon Woodruff | 15.4% | +550 |
| Ronald Acuna | ATL | No | 97 | Chad Kuhl | 15.3% | +555 |
| Jeimer Candelario | DET | Yes | 94 | Logan Gilbert | 15.2% | +560 |
| Justin Turner | LAD | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 14.8% | +575 |
| Freddie Freeman | LAD | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt | 14.7% | +580 |
| Dansby Swanson | ATL | No | 97 | Chad Kuhl | 14.6% | +585 |
| Charlie Blackmon | COL | Yes | 100 | Spencer Strider | 14.6% | +585 |
| Nelson Cruz | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 14.4% | +590 |
| Andrew Vaughn | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 14.4% | +595 |
| Andres Gimenez | CLE | Yes | 103 | Kyle Bradish | 14.3% | +600 |
| Will Smith | LAD | No | 98 | Chris Bassitt | 14.1% | +610 |
| Luke Voit | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 13.7% | +630 |
| Hunter Dozier | KC | No | 106 | Johnny Cueto | 13.7% | +630 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | BAL | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 13.6% | +635 |
| Ryan McMahon | COL | Yes | 100 | Spencer Strider | 13.3% | +655 |
| Michael Harris II | ATL | Yes | 100 | Chad Kuhl | 13.3% | +655 |
| Tommy Pham | BOS | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 12.9% | +675 |
| Jorge Mateo | BAL | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 12.9% | +675 |
| Adley Rutschman | BAL | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 12.9% | +675 |
| Dan Vogelbach | NYM | No | 95 | Clayton Kershaw | 12.6% | +695 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | TEX | No | 93 | Rich Hill | 12.4% | +710 |
| Javier Baez | DET | No | 99 | Logan Gilbert | 12.2% | +720 |
| Eloy Jimenez | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 12.2% | +720 |
| Luis Garcia | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 12.1% | +725 |
| Mark Canha | NYM | Yes | 98 | Clayton Kershaw | 12.1% | +730 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt | 12.0% | +730 |
| Franchy Cordero | BOS | Yes | 93 | Glenn Otto | 11.8% | +745 |
| Austin Hays | BAL | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 11.5% | +770 |
| Ramon Urias | BAL | No | 99 | Shane Bieber | 11.5% | +770 |
| A.J. Pollock | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 11.4% | +775 |
| Sean Murphy | OAK | No | 106 | Paolo Espino | 11.4% | +775 |
| Cody Bellinger | LAD | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt | 11.3% | +785 |
| Jace Peterson | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 11.0% | +810 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 10.8% | +830 |
| Jesse Winker | SEA | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 10.8% | +830 |
| Steven Kwan | CLE | Yes | 103 | Kyle Bradish | 10.6% | +840 |
| Joey Gallo | LAD | Yes | 95 | Chris Bassitt | 10.6% | +840 |
| Tucker Barnhart | DET | Yes | 94 | Logan Gilbert | 10.5% | +850 |
| J.D. Martinez | BOS | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 10.0% | +895 |
| Enrique Hernandez | BOS | No | 99 | Glenn Otto | 10.0% | +895 |
| Elias Diaz | COL | No | 97 | Spencer Strider | 9.9% | +915 |
| Curt Casali | SEA | Yes | 99 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 9.9% | +915 |
| Andrew McCutchen | MIL | No | 93 | Merrill Kelly | 9.5% | +955 |
| Christian Yelich | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 9.5% | +955 |
| Jake McCarthy | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 9.5% | +955 |
| Vaughn Grissom | ATL | No | 97 | Chad Kuhl | 9.1% | +995 |
| Josh Harrison | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Romy Gonzalez | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Nick Allen | OAK | No | 106 | Paolo Espino | 9.1% | +1000 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 9.0% | +1010 |
| Francisco Lindor | NYM | Yes | 98 | Clayton Kershaw | 9.0% | +1015 |
| Robbie Grossman | ATL | Yes | 100 | Chad Kuhl | 8.8% | +1040 |
| Keibert Ruiz | WSH | Yes | 106 | Ken Waldichuk | 8.8% | +1040 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Alek Thomas | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 8.7% | +1050 |
| Randal Grichuk | COL | No | 97 | Spencer Strider | 8.4% | +1095 |
| Garrett Hampson | COL | No | 97 | Spencer Strider | 8.4% | +1095 |
| Stephen Vogt | OAK | Yes | 104 | Paolo Espino | 8.3% | +1110 |
| Elvis Andrus | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Seby Zavala | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Alex Verdugo | BOS | Yes | 93 | Glenn Otto | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Reese McGuire | BOS | Yes | 93 | Glenn Otto | 8.2% | +1115 |
| Josh Rojas | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 7.9% | +1165 |
| Brendan Rodgers | COL | No | 97 | Spencer Strider | 7.6% | +1215 |
| Riley Greene | DET | Yes | 94 | Logan Gilbert | 7.5% | +1225 |
| Kerry Carpenter | DET | Yes | 94 | Logan Gilbert | 7.5% | +1225 |
| Adam Engel | CHW | No | 106 | Daniel Mengden | 7.4% | +1250 |
| Omar Narvaez | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 7.1% | +1310 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | CLE | No | 99 | Kyle Bradish | 7.0% | +1340 |
| Willi Castro | DET | Yes | 94 | Logan Gilbert | 6.8% | +1375 |
| Tony Kemp | OAK | Yes | 104 | Paolo Espino | 6.6% | +1420 |
| Leody Taveras | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 6.5% | +1430 |
| Ezequiel Duran | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 6.5% | +1430 |
| Bubba Thompson | TEX | Yes | 99 | Rich Hill | 6.5% | +1430 |
| Rougned Odor | BAL | Yes | 103 | Shane Bieber | 6.5% | +1435 |
| Brandon Nimmo | NYM | No | 95 | Clayton Kershaw | 6.4% | +1450 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | No | 94 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 6.4% | +1465 |
| Geraldo Perdomo | ARI | Yes | 99 | Brandon Woodruff | 6.3% | +1495 |
| Garrett Mitchell | MIL | Yes | 99 | Merrill Kelly | 6.3% | +1495 |
