3 MLB FanDuel Value Plays to Target on Thursday 9/29/22
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
As a result of this, the primary method of selecting hitters is to "stack" certain teams in good spots to produce. Most of the top stacks on a given day come with hefty salaries. In addition to that, a vast majority of pitchers with the upside to win tournaments are high-salaried hurlers.
Therefore, crushing your value plays -- whether it be a pitcher unexpectedly piling up strikeouts or a low-salaried batter racking up points -- can be the secret sauce to taking down a tournament.
Which budget options stand out today on FanDuel?
Joc Pederson, OF, Giants ($2,400)
Pederson mauls righties. In the split this season, he owns a .378 wOBA, 41.8% hard-hit rate and 45.8% fly-ball rate. We project Joc as the slate's number-one overall hitter, forecasting him to score 15.3 FanDuel points. The only negatives with him are his likely popularity and that he can get yanked for a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner later in the game.
San Fran's 4.08 implied total isn't too crazy, but on this small slate, it's enough to put them on the stacking radar. On a slate with some quality high-salary aces, the modest-salaried Giants are a handy stack. J.D. Davis ($2,100), LaMonte Wade Jr ($2,400), Wilmer Flores ($2,800) and Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800) all project as sweet point-per-dollar options in addition to Pederson.
Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, Marlins ($2,000)
Anderson will have the platoon advantage against Lauer, and he's posted a .345 wOBA in the split in 2022. He's hot right now, totaling seven hits -- including three extra-base knocks -- over the last four games, and Anderson is projected to hit third.
Lauer is a fine pitcher, but he's been tagged for 1.76 jacks per nine by right-handed hitters.
Salaried at the minimum, in a solid matchup and eligible at two positions, Anderson is a useful value piece on this slate.
Jo Adell, OF, Angels ($2,000)
The Los Angeles Angels' 4.21 implied total is the slate's best as of early Thursday (although we're still awaiting betting numbers for the Los Angeles Dodgers-San Diego Padres game). However, the Halos have put up meh performances in smash spots the last two nights, and with Shohei Ohtani not in the hitter player pool (because he's pitching), the Angels might not be all that chalky today outside of Mike Trout.
But Irvin is exactly the kind of pitcher we want to stack against. He doesn't get many punchouts (16.8% strikeout rate) and permits gobs of fly-balls (41.7% fly-ball rate). He's allowed 1.43 homers per nine in the second half and has surrendered an eye-popping 27 earned runs over his previous five starts (28 2/3 innings). Geesh.
Adell offers a decent power/speed combo when he's right, which, admittedly, hasn't been often, and he's a decent low-salary dart on Thursday night.