MLB

MLB Betting: Home Run, Strikeout, and Run Total Projections for Thursday 9/29/22

Just how likely is a homer from a certain player tonight? How many runs will Team X score? And can the pitcher you're eying go over his strikeout prop?

To find out, I leveraged numberFire's batter and pitcher projections plus team implied totals to try to answer those questions.

Here are today's results to help us navigate daily fantasy baseball and MLB betting opportunities at MLB odds.

(Please note that these projections are subject to change throughout the day and as lineups are confirmed. To see the most current projections, check out our projections pages.)

Team Run Total Projections

Team Opp SP O/U Implied
Total
5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
BOSMike
Baumann
9.04.8635.9%21.8%11.9%5.9%2.7%
PHIJavier
Assad
7.54.2926.2%14.3%7.0%3.1%1.3%
LAACole
Irvin
7.04.2124.8%13.4%6.5%2.8%1.1%
MILBraxton
Garrett
7.54.1924.5%13.1%6.3%2.8%1.1%
SFRyan
Feltner
7.04.1523.9%12.7%6.1%2.6%1.0%
BALNathan
Eovaldi
9.04.1423.7%12.6%6.0%2.6%1.0%
DETJon
Heasley
7.53.9120.1%10.2%4.6%1.9%0.7%
CHWLouie
Varland
7.53.8619.3%9.7%4.3%1.7%0.6%
MINLucas
Giolito
7.53.6416.1%7.7%3.3%1.2%0.4%
SEAJon
Gray
7.03.6015.6%7.3%3.1%1.2%0.4%
KCEduardo
Rodriguez
7.53.5915.5%7.2%3.0%1.1%0.4%
TEXMarco
Gonzales
7.03.4012.9%5.8%2.3%0.8%0.3%
MIAEric
Lauer
7.53.3111.8%5.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
TBCal
Quantrill
6.53.3011.7%5.1%2.0%0.7%0.2%
CHCRanger
Suarez
7.53.2110.7%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
CLEJeffrey
Springs
6.53.2010.5%4.5%1.7%0.6%0.2%
COLCarlos
Rodon
7.02.857.0%2.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%
OAKShohei
Ohtani
7.02.796.4%2.4%0.8%0.2%0.1%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Pitcher Opp K
Proj
3+ 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+ 8+ 9+
Shohei
Ohtani
OAK8.095.8%90.0%80.9%68.7%54.7%40.7%28.3%
Carlos
Rodon
COL7.794.9%88.3%78.1%65.0%50.6%36.7%24.8%
Lucas
Giolito
MIN6.084.4%70.8%54.6%38.6%24.9%14.8%8.1%
Eric
Lauer
MIA5.882.5%68.0%51.3%35.4%22.2%12.8%6.8%
Jeffrey
Springs
CLE5.680.7%65.5%48.5%32.7%20.0%11.3%5.8%
Jon
Gray
SEA5.478.2%62.0%44.7%29.2%17.4%9.4%4.7%
Andrew
Heaney
SD5.376.8%60.2%42.8%27.5%16.1%8.6%4.2%
Sean
Manaea
LAD5.073.9%56.5%38.9%24.2%13.7%7.0%3.3%
Braxton
Garrett
MIL4.871.2%53.1%35.6%21.5%11.7%5.8%2.6%
Eduardo
Rodriguez
KC4.870.4%52.2%34.7%20.8%11.2%5.5%2.5%
Louie
Varland
CHW4.769.5%51.1%33.7%19.9%10.7%5.2%2.3%
Ranger
Suarez
CHC4.769.3%50.9%33.5%19.8%10.6%5.1%2.3%
Nathan
Eovaldi
BAL4.768.7%50.2%32.8%19.3%10.2%4.9%2.2%
Cal
Quantrill
TB4.565.3%46.2%29.2%16.5%8.4%3.9%1.6%
Cole
Irvin
LAA4.463.5%44.3%27.5%15.3%7.6%3.5%1.4%
Marco
Gonzales
TEX4.157.6%38.1%22.3%11.6%5.4%2.3%0.9%
Javier
Assad
PHI3.749.5%30.3%16.3%7.7%3.3%1.3%0.4%
Ryan
Feltner
SF3.545.7%26.9%13.8%6.3%2.6%0.9%0.3%
Jon
Heasley
DET3.341.7%23.6%11.6%5.0%1.9%0.7%0.2%
Mike
Baumann
BOS3.034.6%18.0%8.1%3.2%1.1%0.4%0.1%
Brusdar
Graterol
SD1.56.4%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Daily Batter Home Run Projections

You can view all MLB game and prop odds at MLB odds.

Notes: The "Split Adv?" column refers to whether a batter is starting the game against a pitcher of the opposite handedness. "Home Run PF" refers to home run park factor for the batter's handedness; data from FanGraphs. "xHR Odds" indicate what a player's home run odds should be given the home run probability; this helps seek value.

Batter Team Split
Adv?
HR
PF
Opp
SP
HR
Prob%
xHR
Odds
Rhys
Hoskins
PHINo103Javier
Assad
29.6%+240
Joc
Pederson
SFYes87Ryan
Feltner
26.7%+275
Gavin
Sheets
CHWYes99Louie
Varland
24.4%+310
Bryce
Harper
PHIYes96Javier
Assad
24.4%+310
Kyle
Schwarber
PHIYes96Javier
Assad
24.4%+310
Mookie
Betts
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
24.2%+315
Anthony
Santander
BALYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
23.9%+320
Rafael
Devers
BOSYes93Mike
Baumann
23.4%+325
Shohei
Ohtani
LAANo108Cole
Irvin
23.0%+335
Mike
Trout
LAAYes103Cole
Irvin
22.3%+350
Brandon
Drury
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
21.2%+370
J.D.
Martinez
BOSNo99Mike
Baumann
21.2%+370
Trea
Turner
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
20.7%+385
Taylor
Ward
LAAYes103Cole
Irvin
20.7%+385
Andrew
McCutchen
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
20.1%+400
Jose
Ramirez
CLEYes99Jeffrey
Springs
19.5%+415
Patrick
Wisdom
CHCYes103Ranger
Suarez
19.5%+415
David
Villar
SFNo90Ryan
Feltner
19.3%+420
Will
Smith
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
19.0%+425
C.J.
Cron
COLYes90Carlos
Rodon
18.7%+435
Cal
Raleigh
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
18.4%+445
Josh
Jung
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
18.3%+445
Ryan
Mountcastle
BALNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
18.0%+455
Sean
Murphy
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
17.9%+460
Elvis
Andrus
CHWNo98Louie
Varland
17.8%+460
Keston
Hiura
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
17.6%+470
Michael
Brosseau
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
17.6%+470
Bryan
De
La
Cruz
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
17.6%+470
Adley
Rutschman
BALYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
17.4%+475
Max
Muncy
LADNo95Sean
Manaea
17.3%+475
Juan
Soto
SDNo95Andrew
Heaney
17.3%+475
LaMonte
Wade
Jr
SFYes87Ryan
Feltner
17.1%+485
Salvador
Perez
KCYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
17.0%+485
Adolis
Garcia
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
17.0%+485
Randy
Arozarena
TBNo99Cal
Quantrill
16.8%+495
Dermis
Garcia
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
16.7%+500
Andrew
Vaughn
CHWNo98Louie
Varland
16.6%+500
Marcus
Semien
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
16.4%+510
Willy
Adames
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
16.2%+515
Eugenio
Suarez
SEANo99Jon
Gray
16.2%+520
J.T.
Realmuto
PHINo103Javier
Assad
16.0%+525
Corey
Seager
TEXNo96Marco
Gonzales
16.0%+525
Bobby
Witt
Jr.
KCYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
15.7%+535
Garrett
Cooper
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
15.5%+545
Luis
Rengifo
LAAYes103Cole
Irvin
15.5%+545
Christopher
Morel
CHCYes103Ranger
Suarez
15.5%+545
Charles
Leblanc
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
15.5%+545
Nick
Maton
PHIYes96Javier
Assad
15.4%+550
Gio
Urshela
MINNo98Lucas
Giolito
15.4%+550
Justin
Turner
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
15.3%+550
Manny
Machado
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
15.3%+550
Trayce
Thompson
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
15.3%+550
Christian
Bethancourt
TBNo99Cal
Quantrill
14.9%+570
Conner
Capel
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
14.9%+570
Hunter
Renfroe
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
14.8%+575
Jo
Adell
LAAYes103Cole
Irvin
14.8%+575
Seiya
Suzuki
CHCYes103Ranger
Suarez
14.8%+575
Mike
Yastrzemski
SFYes87Ryan
Feltner
14.8%+575
Nathaniel
Lowe
TEXNo96Marco
Gonzales
14.4%+595
Joey
Bart
SFNo90Ryan
Feltner
14.4%+595
Hunter
Dozier
KCYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
14.4%+595
Jonah
Heim
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
14.4%+595
Jose
Abreu
CHWNo98Louie
Varland
14.1%+610
Victor
Caratini
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
14.1%+610
Tyrone
Taylor
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
14.1%+610
Cedric
Mullins
BALYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
13.8%+625
Jason
Vosler
SFYes87Ryan
Feltner
13.6%+635
Seth
Brown
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
13.4%+645
Nick
Fortes
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
13.4%+650
Alan
Trejo
COLYes90Carlos
Rodon
13.3%+655
Wilmer
Flores
SFNo90Ryan
Feltner
13.1%+660
Thairo
Estrada
SFNo90Ryan
Feltner
13.1%+660
Gunnar
Henderson
BALYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
13.1%+660
Gary
Sanchez
MINNo98Lucas
Giolito
12.8%+680
Luis
Urias
MILYes103Braxton
Garrett
12.6%+695
Jurickson
Profar
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
12.6%+695
Chris
Taylor
LADYes96Sean
Manaea
12.6%+695
Elehuris
Montero
COLYes90Carlos
Rodon
12.6%+695
Rougned
Odor
BALYes93Nathan
Eovaldi
12.5%+700
Carlos
Santana
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
12.1%+725
Jarred
Kelenic
SEAYes96Jon
Gray
12.1%+725
Josh
Harrison
CHWNo98Louie
Varland
12.1%+725
A.J.
Pollock
CHWNo98Louie
Varland
12.1%+725
Carlos
Correa
MINNo98Lucas
Giolito
12.1%+725
MJ
Melendez
KCNo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
11.9%+740
Jorge
Alfaro
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
11.9%+745
Brian
Anderson
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
11.8%+745
Javier
Baez
DETNo99Jon
Heasley
11.5%+770
Mitch
Haniger
SEANo99Jon
Gray
11.5%+770
Oscar
Gonzalez
CLEYes99Jeffrey
Springs
11.4%+775
Vinnie
Pasquantino
KCNo94Eduardo
Rodriguez
11.4%+780
Randal
Grichuk
COLYes90Carlos
Rodon
11.2%+790
Josh
Bell
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
11.1%+800
Ha-Seong
Kim
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
11.1%+800
Willson
Contreras
CHCYes103Ranger
Suarez
11.0%+805
Franmil
Reyes
CHCYes103Ranger
Suarez
11.0%+805
Matt
Wallner
MINYes99Lucas
Giolito
11.0%+810
Austin
Hays
BALNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
10.8%+830
Ty
France
SEANo99Jon
Gray
10.8%+830
Jose
Miranda
MINNo98Lucas
Giolito
10.7%+835
David
Peralta
TBYes103Cal
Quantrill
10.6%+840
Harold
Castro
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
10.5%+850
Riley
Greene
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
10.5%+850
Brandon
Crawford
SFYes87Ryan
Feltner
10.5%+855
Triston
Casas
BOSYes93Mike
Baumann
10.4%+860
Freddie
Freeman
LADNo95Sean
Manaea
10.3%+875
Livan
Soto
LAANo108Cole
Irvin
10.1%+885
Jose
Siri
TBNo99Cal
Quantrill
10.0%+895
Willi
Castro
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
9.8%+920
Elias
Diaz
COLYes90Carlos
Rodon
9.8%+920
Wil
Myers
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
9.6%+940
Yasmani
Grandal
CHWYes99Louie
Varland
9.5%+955
Jonathan
Schoop
DETNo99Jon
Heasley
9.3%+975
Christian
Arroyo
BOSNo99Mike
Baumann
9.3%+975
Michael
Taylor
KCYes99Eduardo
Rodriguez
9.1%+1005
Wander
Franco
TBYes103Cal
Quantrill
9.0%+1010
Alec
Bohm
PHINo103Javier
Assad
8.8%+1030
Shea
Langeliers
OAKNo103Shohei
Ohtani
8.8%+1030
Jon
Berti
MIAYes103Eric
Lauer
8.5%+1070
Jorge
Mateo
BALNo99Nathan
Eovaldi
8.5%+1070
Brandon
Marsh
PHIYes96Javier
Assad
8.5%+1080
Tucker
Barnhart
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
8.3%+1105
Jeimer
Candelario
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
8.3%+1105
Jake
Cave
MINYes99Lucas
Giolito
7.9%+1165
Xander
Bogaerts
BOSNo99Mike
Baumann
7.7%+1190
Enrique
Hernandez
BOSNo99Mike
Baumann
7.7%+1190
Tommy
Pham
BOSNo99Mike
Baumann
7.7%+1190
Vimael
Machin
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
7.7%+1200
Alex
Verdugo
BOSYes93Mike
Baumann
7.5%+1240
Amed
Rosario
CLEYes99Jeffrey
Springs
7.4%+1255
Leody
Taveras
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
7.4%+1255
Bubba
Thompson
TEXYes99Marco
Gonzales
7.4%+1255
Jose
Azocar
SDYes96Andrew
Heaney
7.2%+1290
Christian
Yelich
MILNo101Braxton
Garrett
6.8%+1365
Tony
Kemp
OAKYes108Shohei
Ohtani
6.8%+1370
Akil
Baddoo
DETYes94Jon
Heasley
6.8%+1375