MLB

MLB Betting Guide for Friday 3/31/23: Will the Astros Put Their First Win of 2023 on the Board?

Betting baseball can be a grind that reaps a large reward.

Day-to-day outlooks can be vastly different by starting pitchers, and there is a wealth of advanced stats that can let us know an individual pitcher or team is due to positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using our model as a guide, which MLB lines are most appealing today from FanDuel Sportsbook?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All stats come from FanGraphs unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Mets ML (-108) - 1 Star

This close line encapsulates some early-season uncertainty, but with largely unchanged lineups and two starters in the same spot, these two teams were too far apart last year to ignore.

In 2022, the Mets had a 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, which was the 12th-best mark in baseball. They'll face Miami's Jesus Luzardo, who is the superior pitcher in this one. He held a solid 3.23 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) last season, but there were aspects of his profile that caused nightly blowups -- most notably a 39.1% hard-hit rate allowed.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Marlins had a 71 wRC+ against southpaws last year. That was comfortably the worst mark in the league, and New York's David Peterson was one of several lefties to handle them. He had a 2.50 ERA in four appearances against Miami last year, and his rotation spot in 2023 was solidified behind a 3.57 SIERA himself.

Our model believes the Mets, with a better lineup in this split and a comparable hurler, win this game 54.5% of the time, but these odds imply just a 52.3% chance.

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros

Astros ML (-146) - 2 Stars

Here is numberFire's only multi-unit recommendation. Based on today's pitching matchup, the Astros have a great chance to even their series with the White Sox at one.

Houston is throwing out Cristian Javier, who might be an ascending star in the sport worth targeting for a season-long prop. Javier wasn't initially needed in last year's deeper rotation, but he closed the year as a vital part of their title team. Javier's 33.2% strikeout rate makes him unhittable in some outings, which all compounded into a tidy 2.54 ERA and 3.14 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

Chicago's Lance Lynn is an entirely different story. The 35-year-old has held five seasonal ERAs above 3.50, so he's never been a surefire ace for an individual season. Lynn's 3.35 SIERA a year ago was his best mark since his rookie year in 2011, yet his strikeout rate dipped to 24.2% -- the worst mark for him as a member of the Pale Hose.

With these two orthodox hurlers on the bump, the Astros (107 wRC+ in 2022) also were a better club against right-handed pitching than the Sox (93) last year.

Our model expects the 'Stros to win tonight 64.0% of the time, so the juice on these 59.3% implied odds might not be enough.