3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/21/23
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Here are some MLB player prop bets to make tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
J.D. Martinez To Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are always a great team to target for home runs, and tonight brings them a favorable matchup.
They are on the road to take on the Texas Rangers, who will have Andrew Heaney on the mound. This season, Heaney has allowed a total of 17 home runs, and they've all come via right-handed hitters, which is the split we want to target him.
In total this year, Heaney is allowing a .487 SLG, .349 wOBA, 4.56 xFIP, 1.99 HR/9, 46.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.7% hard-contact rate versus righties. With several righty power hitters in the Dodgers' lineup, this could be a tough outing for Heaney.
We'll look to J.D. Martinez, who comes in with a 101 wRC+, .319 wOBA, .211 ISO, 42.6% fly-ball rate, and 46.3% hard-contact rate versus southpaws this season.
He's got great underlying metrics and is in a position to knock one over the fence tonight, which is why I'll add Martinez To Record an RBI (+120).
Corbin Carroll To Record 2+ Hits (+135)
To say we are going to see some offense between these teams this weekend is probably an understatement. They have great talent on both sides along with some questionable pitching staffs that offer great spots to target.
The Reds will have Ben Lively on the mound, who comes in allowing a .317 wOBA, .460 SLG, 4.88 xFIP, 2.15 HR/9, 19.8% strikeout rate, and 50.0% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters this season. The Reds' bullpen also struggles versus lefties this season, sitting with the 11th-worst wOBA against them.
This puts Corbin Carroll in essentially an elite matchup, and I want to shoot for the plus money at +135 for multiple hits compared to his prop for two-plus total bases, which is sitting at -150.
Carroll comes in with a 156 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .325 BABIP, .308 ISO, and a 39.8% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. All of this is great for Carroll and the Diamondbacks, who should have plenty of runners on base with a high implied team total tonight.
Mike Yastrzemski To Record an RBI (+105)
With a 5.14 implied team total, the San Francisco Giants are another team to consider for some player props tonight.
A full slate on a Friday is always great since there will be so many different teams in great spots to cash in on their props. One such team is the Giants, who are going up against Jake Irvin.
The Nationals' rookie is struggling this year versus lefties with a .357 wOBA, .470 SLG, 5.42 xFIP, 1.60 HR/9, .298 BABIP, 40.7% fly-ball rate, and 38.2% hard-contact rate allowed. It's certainly not great for Irvin, but it just points us in the direction of a few Giants' sluggers to take a look at.
We turn to Mike Yastrzemski, who is solid versus right-handed pitchers this season with a 125 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .231 ISO, .321 BABIP, 42.0% fly-ball rate, and 40.5% hard-contact rate.
Everything about this matchup is great for Yastrzemski, who just needs to pick up one RBI tonight at plus money.