NASCAR

NASCAR Betting Guide for the Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard

Evan Cheney Sep 7th, 2019
Kyle Larson is peaking at the right time, finishing in the top-10 in each of his last five races. Should you bet on him to win at Indy?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

Last week, we saw Erik Jones cash in those winner tickets for the first time all season. Will we see another new winner this week in the final regular season race? If we do, you might be getting some darn good value on him at great odds. So without further ado, let's look at some of the top bets for this weekend's race.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

At the Top

Denny Hamlin (+550) - While Hamlin had his struggles in Darlington, that was only due to a crash during the race. Before that, he was running very well, and the data seems to confirm that. Hamlin is still the hottest driver in the series with a driver rating of 112.4 in his last five races, including Darlington. Hamlin also comes in with the fifth-best track history in Indy of any driver in terms of driving rating, at 97.3. As far as flat tracks this season, he has the fourth-best driver rating in the Cup Series (111.2) in 2019. If he qualifies well, these odds will get shorter, so bet while the value is good.

Martin Truex Jr. (+700) - Truex is the best pivot off of Hamlin if you're looking at a more favorable payout without sacrificing much in terms of win probability. It seems as if Truex has cooled down a bit, finishing outside the top-10 in two of his last five races, but this is far from the case. His recent driver rating of 110.3 over his last five races is second in the series, trailing only Hamlin. Truex's driver rating of 102.0 on flat tracks in 2019 is fifth in the series -- behind, you guessed it, Hamlin. I wouldn't be surprised if these two finished first and second on Sunday.

Value Spots

Kyle Larson (+1000) - The number-42 team seems to be getting it together at the right time, just before the playoffs begin. The amount of bad luck this team had earlier in the season really makes this a feel-good situation. As far as this race is concerned, Larson is a decent value bet to target. He is just behind Truex and Hamlin in terms of recent driver rating, sitting at 109.5 in his last five races, which includes five top-10 finishes and three top-five showings. Contrary to popular belief, Larson does not always need a high line to drive on in order to succeed, which is shown in his 98.6 driver rating since 2011 here at Indy (fourth among drivers in the field). My only drawback is that Larson has struggled at flat tracks this season, with a driver rating of 77.2, but some of that is attributed to the aforementioned bad luck.

Brad Keselowski (+900) - Team Penske, as a whole, has been running pretty cold as of late, and the best remedy for that would certainly be a winning effort by one of their drivers this weekend. Keselowski gives you the best chance of doing that with the best possible payout. This has been one of his stronger tracks in his career. This is where Keselowski won his second of what would be three straight wins at this same point in the 2018 season. What's to say that he can't pull off that type of magic again? His recent form is strong, the fourth-best driver rating in the series (105.4) across his last five races, and he has the third-best driver rating in the field this season at flat tracks, albeit from one very dominate race at Martinsville. Keselowski should be a bet that you make this weekend.

Long Shot

Matt DiBenedetto (+6500) - He was the long-shot bet last week, and he is a decent long-shot gamble this weekend. There are other long-shot drivers worth betting (mainly Ryan Newman at +10000), but DiBenedetto really could win this race. His recent form is actually better than that of some notable drivers such as Clint Bowyer, William Byron and Alex Bowman, to name a few. This recent hot streak for him could be what helps him sneak into the playoffs in the last race.