NASCAR Betting Guide: Hollywood Casino 400

Starting in 18th, is Kyle Busch a good bet to take the checkered flag on Sunday?

Picking NASCAR race winners is nearly impossible because of how much has to go right on the track to end up in victory lane. The pit stops have to be perfect, the driver has to avoid pit road penalties and accidents, and crew chiefs need to make the right adjustments to be one of the best cars at the end of a race to give the driver the chance to win.

Below we will cover the best bets of the weekend, but numberFire always has you covered when it comes to NASCAR. Check out the track preview for additional information on the history at this track, and the driver preview will give you some names to watch in this weekend's race.

At the Top

Martin Truex Jr. (+450) - Even considering his inspections issues, Truex is the most likely driver to win at Kansas. He comes into this race with the best recent form of any driver in the field at a 121.5 driver rating. His track history here since 2015 is also solid relative to the field at 107.8. Not that this would be a gutsy bet, but no one can fault you for betting on the best driver in the field to win.

Kyle Busch (+500) - Had Kevin Harvick not had his own issues during inspection, I would say that he would be the next likely driver to win. With that being said, Kyle Busch is not the clear number two in terms of most likely winners on Sunday. His track history at Kansas is actually better than Truex's, at 111.8 in terms of driver rating. Busch has also done his fair share of dominating at 1.5-mile tracks, especially earlier on in the season. He is still number-two in the field this season at these tracks with a driver rating of 107.7 through nine races, and he was excelling during final practice on both short- and long-run speed.

Value Spots

Joey Logano (+800) - While Logano seems safe on points to advance to the next round, nothing would solidify that more than winning at Kansas. Last year's champion currently sits 18 points above the cut line in this final race of the the Round of 12 -- though had it not been for his car issues right before the start of the Dover race, he might not be in this pickle. Regardless, Logano has great track history here, with a driver rating of 95.9, which is fifth in the field. It's also important to note that Logano ran the fifth-fastest 15-lap average in final practice, which shows just how much speed his car has.

Ryan Blaney (+2500) - Starting in third, Blaney is egregiously priced at 25/1 odds. He has been better at Kansas career-wise than teammate Logano has, averaging a driver rating of 98.1 here. Blaney has also been practicing better than Logano this weekend, specifically in final practice as Blaney ran the second-fastest 15-lap average, behind only Kyle Busch. Team Penske has just been straight up good at Kansas, and Blaney looks primed to continue that trend.

Long Shot

Jimmie Johnson (+4000) - Believe it or not, Johnson has been performing better through the four non-Talladega races than some of the playoff drivers. In these four races, Johnson is averaging a driver rating of 91.9, which is eighth-best in the field. To put this into perspective, this figure is better than the likes of Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Blaney, to name a few. On top of his strong recent performance, Johnson has also been solid in his career at Kansas, with an average driver rating of 87.4 here. Finally, Johnson ran the seventh-fastest 15-lap average in final practice. All of this put together makes Johnson the best option when it comes to long-shot bets.