Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Super Start Batteries 400
The dream scenario for trying to predict NASCAR is abundant recent races at similar tracks and multiple races at that specific track each year. This way, we can blend current form and course history without looking at non-relevant races or digging too far back into the vault for track data.
Kansas is our paradise in that regard.
Not only does the Cup Series come here twice each year, but it's already the eighth time the Cup Series has gone to a 1.5-mile track in 2020. It's also the fourth time they've been to a 1.5-mile track with banking similar to Kansas, and two of those have been in the past 40 days.
We know who's going to be fast on Thursday night in the Super Start Batteries 400. Now all we have to do is use that knowledge to fill out some sick DFS lineups.
The data sheet below combines all of this data into one place so that you can see who has excelled in relevant races this year and in past races at Kansas. Each track in the current form section was a 1.5-mile track, meaning we don't need any caveats; we can just dive straight in.
The three races at tracks with similar banking to Kansas have been in Las Vegas, Homestead, and Kentucky. Homestead and Kentucky are the two recent races, and they'll be the ones we'll want to emphasize most when hunting for drivers. Homestead, specifically, stands out because it's another multi-groove track, just like Kansas.
As always, the numbers in these boxes are the drivers' average running positions rather than their finishes. Ryan Blaney ($11,000) is a good example of why we should do this.
In Las Vegas, Blaney had one of the best cars all day. He had a fourth-place average running position and was leading with just five laps left. However, when a caution came out, his crew chief, Todd Gordon, had Blaney pit while others stayed out. Blaney finished 11th, which doesn't come close to reflecting the speed he had that day.
When we focus on average running positions, we see that Blaney has had a top-five average running position in all three races at the moderately banked, 1.5-mile tracks, something no other driver has done even twice. He also had a fourth-place average running position in both Kansas races in 2018 and almost won in 2017, though that race isn't included on the sheet.
Outside of the race-level data, you can also see each driver's FanDuel salary and their win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are presented in fractional form, so Kevin Harvick ($14,000) being listed at 4.2 means he is +420 to get the win.
The drivers are sorted by the starting order, which was set on Wednesday night.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$12,700||6.5||5||17||7||11||3||3||8||6||19||9||9|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$7,100||150||25||24||25||23||14||23||15||18||6||21||17|
|John Hunter Nemechek||$6,700||150||30||24||28||20||25||21||20||--||--||--||--|
As mentioned in this week's track preview, we have pretty loose roster-construction guidelines for tonight. You want two drivers starting in the top 12 -- though they can start anywhere within that range -- and we want to give a preference to value drivers starting further back. That puts Tyler Reddick ($8,800), Christopher Bell ($8,000), and Cole Custer ($7,500) back in our crosshairs once again.
But overall, you've got freedom to use drivers starting anywhere as long as you expect them to be fast. With all the great data we've got entering the week, figuring that out shouldn't be all that hard.