Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Bank of America ROVAL 400
In this week's track preview, we mentioned the ideal strategy was to look for place-differential candidates without forcing the issue.
The recommendation was looking at the starting order from back to front, seeing if there were any fast drivers starting further back, and plugging them in if you could find them. In such a short race, the best path to upside is via place-differential. But we also need finishing points, so we can't just plug dudes in willy nilly because they're starting deep in the pack.
Here's the data you'll need to help make those decisions.
The table below is sorted by starting position with those starting at the front listed at the top. They're still in play for sure because of the value of finishing points. But if you can find drivers with speed starting further back, they're going to be enticing.
The way you can make that determination is by digging into both track history and current form.
The track history section this week is a bit of a lie because it does include two races at other tracks. Those were at Watkins Glen and Sonoma in 2019. There have been just two races at the Charlotte roval, so the sample there is slim. Given the unique nature of road courses, it made more sense to fudge the definition than stick with just two races.
The current form section includes just one road-course race. The schedule reshuffling due to COVID lopped both Watkins Glen and Sonoma off the schedule in 2020, meaning the only road-course race they've run was the Daytona roval in August. That's going to be a key signal for us as it's the only road-course data we have on each driver with their current team.
We shouldn't just ignore form, though. At the Daytona roval, the current form section of my model had a better correlation to each driver's average running position than their history on road courses. Equipment matters at these tracks, too, so if they've been lacking juice recently, they might be tough to justify.
The tracks included in the current form section (outside of the Daytona roval) are the past five that included off-throttle time. Braking is a legitimate skill in the Cup Series, and it'll give us a better indication of who will be fast on Sunday than looking at races at places like Las Vegas or Talladega.
As always, the numbers in the current form and track history sections are each driver's average running position rather than their finish. Martin Truex Jr. ($13,200) finished 14th in the 2018 Charlotte roval race, which seems pretty lackluster. But he was leading entering the final turn before crashing, so his eighth-place average running position -- tied for best in that race -- is a better indication of his speed than where he finished.
The other data included are each driver's FanDuel salary and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Chase Elliott ($13,500) being listed at 2.6 means he's +260 to win.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$13,200||7||7||21||6||3||7||4||8||9||8||3||3|
|John Hunter Nemechek||$4,500||200||19||20||28||28||22||26||27||--||--||--||--|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,600||200||38||39||18||18||37||12||18||17||21||18||19|
As we scroll up from the bottom, two drivers who stand out with both good form and good speed on road courses are Ryan Blaney ($12,000) and Jimmie Johnson ($10,300).
As mentioned earlier, Truex got wrecked in the final turn of the 2018 race at Charlotte. It was Johnson who wrecked him, hurting their finishes. The guy who benefited? It was Blaney, who came up from the third spot to get the win. It's one of three top-fives for him in the past seven road-course races. With Blaney starting 24th and Johnson in 30th, they're both cash-game considerations.
The data also makes it clear that Truex and Elliott are the cars to beat here, which is why we have to be careful we don't just go overboard on place-differential options. The winning driver will be in the perfect lineup, and the odds it's one of those two are pretty high. So dig into the drivers starting further back and see if they have the speed to finish well, but make sure you get enough exposure to these two studs to benefit if they go off.