Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Buschy McBusch Race 400
This week is a blessing for NASCAR DFS. Rather than leaning on strategy, we get to just pick the best drivers. Hallelujah.
As discussed in the track preview, the starting grid has potential winners at the front, in the middle, and in the back. Those at the front have upside via laps led with 267 laps to be run. Those in the middle and the back can scoop place-differential, and with the way this package plays out, they're not omitted from win consideration, either.
We have multiple routes to upside here, and we have upper-tier options who fit each route. You just get to pick who you like best. Giddy up.
To do so, you'll want to lean heavily on what we've seen in this 550-horsepower package this season. This will be the fourth race at a non-drafting oval to use the 550-horsepower package, giving us a decent sample to look at.
Those three races are the first three listed in the data sheet below: Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Homestead. Looking at those races will tell us how drivers have performed in this rules package with their current teams, and it'll account for any gains teams may have made over the offseason.
The rest of the current form section is the final three non-drafting and non-Kansas races using the 550-horsepower package last year. This means we will have drivers working for different teams, so be wary of over-emphasizing the data for Bubba Wallace ($6,500 on FanDuel), Daniel Suarez ($5,800), and Ross Chastain ($5,500). They've all gotten equipment upgrades since that time, and Erik Jones ($7,000) got a massive equipment downgrade. This also lowers the value in track history data for each of these drivers.
As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. Ryan Blaney ($10,000) finished 21st and 20th in the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020, respectively, which isn't what you want out of a mid-range play. However, his top-seven average running position in both races showed he had speed. If you had judged him based on his finishes, you'd have been down on him last fall when he finished seventh and had a fifth-place average running position.
The other data listed is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($14,000) being listed at 5 means he's +500 to win.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$13,000||6||15||9||7||5||4||7||3||10||4||6||19|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$6,800||100||23||14||15||16||19||23||18||20||35||18||6|
If we're going to emphasize the three similar races in 2021, it's clear that Kyle Larson ($13,500) deserves to be the chalk this weekend.
Larson has had a top-five average running position in all three races, and he converted one of those into a win. Larson has somehow led 43.9% of the laps in those races, and his 377 laps led are 248 more than any other driver. Larson's low starting spot ensures he'll be the most popular driver in the field, but sometimes chalk is chalk for a reason. He's the best option by a wide margin.
Larson has the best win odds in my simulations. The next three -- Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. ($13,000), and Chase Elliott ($11,500) -- all start from 15th to 20th. Truex has a top-nine average running position in all three relevant races this year, and Hamlin has had a top-six mark twice. The appeal there should be obvious.
Elliott's average running positions have lagged a bit. That's in part due to an engine failure in Atlanta, though, and the team just hasn't been able to put together a full race yet in 2021. With that said, they're the defending champs, and their teammates have had massive speed in this package. We should be high on Elliott despite the slow start.
Speaking of teammates, the other two Hendrick drivers beyond Elliott and Larson are William Byron ($9,500) and Alex Bowman ($9,200). Both are appealing for different reasons.
Byron's starting on the outside pole, meaning he has easy access to laps led. He won in Homestead, which has plenty of similarities to Kansas, and he has had a top-seven average running position in all three of our relevant races. He's at 6.1% to win in my simulations, so Byron fits as a potential contrarian tournament option.
The reason he could be contrarian is because Bowman fits the default build well starting back in 25th. Bowman is firmly in play for cash games, though, with a top-11 average running position in all three relevant races. Bowman's the cash-game play, but both he and Byron have appeal for tournaments.