NASCAR

NASCAR Daily Fantasy Helper: FireKeepers Casino 400

NASCAR returns to an oval Sunday at Michigan. Which drivers are primed for a big DFS output?

If you are looking for an action-packed way to get your sports fix, NASCAR may be a great avenue to explore. Far from just driving in circles, some of the world's best compete nearly every weekend from February to November on tracks across America. NASCAR drivers are scored ultimately based on how they finish in the race, how many spots they advance from their starting position, and how many laps they finish and lead. Avoiding drivers who crash out of the race is a must, of course!

numberFire is always your home for fantasy NASCAR advice. In addition to this helper, Jim Sannes has you covered with his current form and odds breakdown as well as his track preview to spotlight this week's venue. For driver picks and a full preview of the event, he also discussed this weekend's race on the latest NASCAR episode of The Heat Check Daily Fantasy Podcast.

A wild race at Indianapolis ended with a curb coming apart and taking out several frontrunners, but in a war of attrition, road-course ringer AJ Allmendinger captured the first Cup Series win for Kaulig Racing to cap a great story for the Xfinity Series team. That win left just two final opportunities for drivers to race their way into NASCAR's playoffs, and the next is this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. This fast, 2.0-mile layout has a track record north of 190 miles per hour for an entire lap, and that type of speed will emphasize a fast race car and put track position at a premium as passing should be brutally difficult.

Michigan was used on NASCAR's 2020 schedule, so there is no practice and qualifying for this weekend's event. That means that this Sunday's starting lineup was set by NASCAR's qualifying formula, which factors in finishing position from Indianapolis, the fastest laps in that race, and overall owner points. That formula -- unsurprisingly -- put teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott on Row 1 for this race.

With all of this in mind, let's preview the FireKeepers Casino 400 in Michigan on FanDuel.

High-Salaried Drivers

Kyle Larson ($14,500): The existential dread of this weekend's race by NASCAR fans largely has to do with Larson. Larson has been just dominant inside the 550-horsepower package to the point where he has three separate races inside the package with a first-place averaging running position this season in addition to his three wins and 846 laps led. With Larson starting on the pole, with one of the best pit stalls, it is harder and harder to see the path to failure for him at a track he won three straight times at between 2016 and 2017 in far lesser equipment. His lofty salary is totally justified, and the key path to building lineups this weekend could involve pairing Larson with the right combination of place-differential options.

Kyle Busch ($13,500): If Larson did not exist in the player pool, this weekend's draft percentages would be wild, and that is no different for the current state of differentiating behind him in tournaments. Kevin Harvick ($12,000) will certainly be popular at a track where he has won three straight times, but the speed situation for Harvick's Ford is entirely different in 2021 than in prior years. That leaves Busch as the best option of the next tier because of his 550-horsepower performance all season. Busch has seven straight top-five finishes on non-drafting ovals that use this horsepower package, including wins at Kansas and Pocono. Busch leads all drivers -- including Larson -- in laps led in the past three events using the package (151), and starting seventh, he could lead more on Sunday.

Others to Consider: Chase Elliott ($12,500), Kevin Harvick ($12,000)

Mid-Salaried Drivers

William Byron ($11,000): Surrounding Larson with place-differential is the primary strategy in tournaments, and Byron offers plenty of it starting in 18th following the "curb incident" at Indianapolis last weekend. Byron -- like all of his Hendrick teammates -- has been incredibly quick in the 550-horsepower package with five top-10 finishes this season, including his win at Homestead in February. In previous seasons, Byron and his team have been down in speed at larger ovals like Michigan, but with Hendrick possessing the best overall speed on them this year behind Larson's torrid pace, Byron may even improve upon his respectable three straight top-15 finishes here.

Brad Keselowski ($10,300): Keselowski has made no secret the extra emphasis he has put on his home race track in Michigan, but that alone does not make him an excellent DFS play in this spot. Keselowski's tumultuous past two weeks on road courses leaves him starting 20th, but he is the sole best target from his Penske Racing team on this track type. Keselowski's 177 laps led on non-drafting large ovals this season is second behind Larson despite being such a low number, but that is how dominant Larson has been. Keselowski's 105.8 driver rating at Michigan since the start of 2018 is third among all drivers, and he will look to finally bust into victory lane after seven top-five finishes at the track.

Others to Consider: Christopher Bell ($9,200), Tyler Reddick ($8,500), Ross Chastain ($8,000)

Low-Salaried Drivers

Austin Dillon ($7,500): We almost could've penciled Keselowski and Dillon into this Michigan helper months ago as they're poor road racers with excellent profiles at this track, so they likely were going to start deep in the field due to last week being a road race. Dillon delivered on that and is starting 26th for Sunday after crashing last week at Indianapolis, and fewer drivers have presented the floor Dillon has on this track type this season. Dillon has top-15 finishes on seven of the eight non-drafting large ovals, with a best finish of sixth at both Charlotte and Atlanta. The Charlotte finish is especially encouraging due to the lack of tire wear that is expected this weekend, and Dillon should maximize track position at all costs as he continues to battle Tyler Reddick ($8,500) for the final playoff spot on overall points.

Daniel Suarez ($6,000): With Suarez crashing in Atlanta and two road course races representing three of the past five NASCAR events, there will never be a better time to buy low on Suarez than this weekend. Suarez's Trackhouse Racing team burst onto the scene with nine top-15 finishes in their first 19 events as an organization, but the recent rough stretch could have been expected. Still, Suarez starts 30th at a vastly better track type for him -- considering he has five top-15 finishes on the eight non-drafting large ovals this season. Because of some of Ford's struggles with speed, Suarez may actually have the fastest car in the salary tier below $7,000 with a Chevrolet that is a pseudo-teammate to both Dillon and Reddick.

Others to Consider: Aric Almirola ($7,000), Chase Briscoe ($5,500), Cole Custer ($5,300), Michael McDowell ($4,000)



Austin Swaim is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Austin Swaim also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username ASwaim3. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.