Daily Fantasy NASCAR: Current Form, Track History, and Betting Odds for the Bank of America ROVAL 400
You want data? We've got your data, champ. We just have to put it to good use on Sunday.
The Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte will be the seventh and final road-course race of the 2021 season. This means when we're trying to pinpoint the top options for DFS, we can zero in on exclusively tracks with right-hand turns and still have a robust sample.
As laid out in this week's track preview, we're taking a two-pronged approach to this event: we want the winner in our lineup, and then we want to accept place-differential where we can find it. Leaning on what we've seen thus far should help us in both of those arenas.
The table below shows each driver's average running position at the previous six road-course races along with how they've run the first three races at the Charlotte roval.
The reason to skew toward average running positions rather than finishes is that finishes can be misleading. At the Indianapolis road course, Denny Hamlin ($13,000 on FanDuel) was leading on the final lap. He then got spun by Chase Briscoe ($9,200) and finished 23rd. Clearly, his eighth-place average running position is a better indicator of the speed he had that day.
Average running positions won't necessarily tell the full tale, either, thanks to the role strategy plays on road courses. As such, it's good to pair the data below with a look at finishing results on road courses courtesy of the Racing Reference fantasy tool. That will better illustrate how fast Chase Elliott ($14,500) was at Watkins Glen. He had a bunch of issues early, leading to a 15th-place average running position, but his other-worldly speed allowed him to rally for a runner-up finish and nearly a win.
The other data listed is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Elliott's being listed at 2.3 means he's +230 to win.
|Martin Truex Jr.||$11,500||8||5||18||4||13||7||25||7||11||9||8|
|Ricky Stenhouse Jr.||$5,900||150||18||21||17||25||32||21||23||22||17||21|
The data makes it clear that Elliott and Kyle Larson ($14,000) are the focal points when we're looking for winners. Nobody has been in their stratosphere on road courses this year. Elliott has the edge, but Larson is firmly in the same tier.
As far as the place-differential options, 5 drivers in the top 17 of my model's projected average running position will start in the back half of the field: Briscoe, AJ Allmendinger ($12,000), Ross Chastain ($9,500), Tyler Reddick ($9,000), and Matt DiBenedetto ($8,500). They're all tremendous DFS options. Allmendinger is the best of the group starting back in 33rd.
The reasons for this are obvious. Allmendinger won at the Indy road course, aided by calamity at the end. That win was a bit fluky, so Allmendinger is overvalued in the outright market, but he doesn't need to win to pay off for DFS. He needs to be in our core even at an elevated salary.
One guy I'm looking to be higher on than the field is Reddick. Reddick hasn't gotten as much buzz as Chastain or Briscoe on road courses due to a lack of top-end finishes. The speed has been there, though; it has just been masked by strategy.
Because all the other races were during the regular season, Reddick and his team prioritized stage points. That means they would stay out at the end of a stage, forgoing the chance to pit, which would put them deeper in the pack for the start of the next stage. It was clearly a smart play as Reddick made the playoffs and scored the seventh-most points on road courses during the regular season; it just wasn't optimal for DFS.
Now, though, things are different. Reddick failed to advance to the Round of 12 and is starting all the way back in 29th. Stage points matter a whole heck of a lot less now, meaning Reddick can have some fun and go for a win. I think he'll perform well in that environment, so although I love all of Chastain, Briscoe, and DiBenedetto, Reddick's the one I'll actively be prioritizing relative to the public.