NBA Betting Guide: Thursday 5/2/19
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 217.0: 2-Star Rating out of 5
In this Eastern Conference semifinal, the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers have split the first two games, but the style of game held constant regardless of the victor. In Game 1, a Raptors win, the teams combined for 203 points, and then they put up just 183 points in the Sixers' Game 2 victory. The pace of the two matchups was 97.5 and 95.0 possessions, respectively.
According to Killer Sports, the under hit in Games 1 and 2, doing so by an average of 28.8 points and resulting in a total 3.5 points lower than that set for Monday's game. It's also far off the average over/under of 225.2 in the six previous matchups between Toronto and Philadelphia.
During the regular season, the over and under hit two times apiece. However, at Wells Fargo, the over was the play. Both games saw the over hit with games of 226 and 227 total points. That's nothing new with this year's Sixers, though. They have had the over hit 53.5% of the time on their home floor, averaging a combined 228.9 points alongside their opponents -- exceeding the average over/under (226.6) by 2.3 points per game.
That, in addition to a Philly win last time out, makes it somewhat surprising to see the 76ers labeled 1.5-point underdogs at home. That's happened only twice before this season, and the outcomes have come in the form of a 237-point game against the Golden State Warriors and a 250-point one against the Milwaukee Bucks. The over hit in one and pushed in the other.
In Sixers games with a total of 217 or lower, the over is 3-4 and 2-2 in only those held in Philadelphia. The Raptors have watched the over hit at a 51.6% clip in those same types of games.
On the road, Raptors games have exceeded the total 51.3% of the time with a total of 221.4 between them and their opponents. Four of those games have matched the exact number, and that stays the same in the 31 games they've played as road favorites. The over's at 44.4% in those, yet the final total has, on average, been 220.7 points -- nearly four above what has been handed down for Game 3.
Per Sports Insights, 59% of the public bets have been placed on the over, increasing the opening total by a full point. But the opportunity is there while it stays this low. Our models expect them to combine for 218 or more points 61.00% of the time. An expected return of 16.50% brings back a two-star rating.
If that's not enough for your betting drive, consider one or two of FanDuel Sportsbook's Player Performance Doubles. At +165 for a Joel Embiid double-double and a Sixers win, that line is appealing. Per NBA Stats, The Process had 38 double-doubles in 43 wins, including 31 of 35 on his home floor. His running mate, Ben Simmons, is at +700 for double-digit assists in a win. He averaged nearly an assist more at home and 0.4 more in wins during the regular season. He averaged 8.8 per game against the Raptors and had games of 11 and 10.
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