NBA Daily Fantasy Helper: Monday 6/10/19
If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes hugely on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a ton of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each price point.
Let's take a look at who you should target on today's one-game slate, which follows a different format than typical NBA contests on FanDuel. Your lineup consists of five position-less slots, with one designated "MVP" having their fantasy score multiplied by 2.0, a "STAR" multiplied by 1.5 and a "PRO" multiplied by 1.2, as well as two utility slots receiving their usual points.
Kawhi Leonard, Toronto Raptors ($16,000)
Kawhi's price-tag has remained unchanged while Stephen Curry has seen a $500 increase ahead of Game 5.
Curry has shown some obvious upside in this series, with 70.1 FanDuel points in Game 3, but he also failed to top 50 fantasy points in any of his other three games, including posting only 40.6 in Game 2 and 40.8 in Game 4. It has been Steph's massive offensive workload keeping him in play for the MVP slot, but with an increased salary and the potential return of Kevin Durant (and with Klay Thompson looking fully healthy), it's going to be a lot harder for Curry to realize that ceiling.
Kawhi has notched 56.3, 55.4 and 68.4 FanDuel points in his last three games, showing a similar ceiling to Curry's along with a much better floor. His 55.3 FanDuel points per game in this series sit well ahead of Curry's 49.8 and miles ahead of the third-place guy (39.2 from Draymond Green).
Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors ($11,500)
As we've been doing all series, it pays to double-down on how you approach your MVP spot -- capturing the upside of the game playing out in a specific way rather than trying to hedge your downside if you're wrong with your MVP. One-game slates have enough volatility that you're not going to be able to hedge very effectively, and you really just want to be going for ceiling anyway.
If we're betting on Kawhi to have a big game as well as fading Curry, we'll want to get exposure to the Warriors' offense elsewhere. Even if Durant returns, there's a good chance he's not 100%. He's still a game-time decision, and being held out until Golden State Warriors are down 3-1 is a sign he could be getting rushed back in desperation. That means Klay still has a ton of offensive potential.
Thompson has attempted at least 17 shots in all three games he's played in this series despite making an early exit in Game 2. His health didn't look to be a concern at all when he returned to action in Game 4, as he played 42.2 minutes and went 11-of-18 from the field (including 6-of-10 from three-point range), racking up 34.6 FanDuel points.
Curry and Thompson have been on the court together for 94 minutes in this series, and Thompson is only two field goal attempts behind Curry (45 to Curry's 47) in that sample. Look for him to continue playing a crucial role in the Golden State offense tonight.
Danny Green, Toronto Raptors ($8,000)
Value is getting harder to come by as the series goes on, with nobody who is averaging at least 17 minutes per game priced below $8,000 tonight. Danny Green is right at that $8,000 mark, though, and he's playing 28.1 minutes per game in this series. That's more run than anybody else who is cheaper than $10,000.
Efficiency is always going to be a concern with a low-usage guy like Green, and we saw that play out in Game 4, when he shot only 1-of-8 from the field, scoring 15.1 FanDuel points.
He's put up at least seven attempts from downtown in three of the four games in this series, though, creating some solid upside for a guy who shot 45.5% from three in the regular season. Green's work from deep helped him reach 23.9 FanDuel points in Game 1 and 30.5 in Game 3.
While he doesn't have exciting upside and you don't want him anywhere except your utility spot, Green is pushing 30 minutes per game, making him an easy value to like, especially on a slate that doesn't offer much appeal on the cheap end.
To read all premium content, upgrade to a Premium account with numberFire
If you're not a Premium subscriber, it takes just a few seconds to sign up. You'll get access to all of our insider information, game projections, handicapping advice, DFS tools, advanced statistics, and more.