3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 11/25/19
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money on betting everyday player props.
For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Over 27.5 Points
Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 27 or more points in five of his last six games for the Minnesota Timberwolves. On the road, Towns has been a problem for opposing teams. He's averaging 27.5 points per game while hitting 4.6 threes on 9.3 attempts in six road games. Yes, you read that right. Towns is shooting lights out from three. The Wolves have the Hawks tonight, a team that's struggling to make the three-ball. Towns' over/under of 3.5 would have hit in five of his last seven games. Minnesota is third in pace factor, and the Hawks are 12th, so expect a high-scoring game with lots of transition threes.
Our models predict Towns to finish with 26.1 points and 3.2 three-pointers made tonight -- keeping it close to his over/unders.
Domantas Sabonis, Over 17.5 Points
Domantas Sabonis has been the glue for the Indiana Pacers and a monster on the interior. He's fifth in the league rebounds at 13.4 per game, and he's averaging 19.1 points per game to go with it. Sabonis has recorded 18 or more points in four of his last six games -- failing to reach that total in a blowout win against the Nets and a blowout loss to the Bucks. Tonight should be neither of those against a young Grizzlies team at home. I expect Sabonis to get a double-double tonight and to be the number-one scoring option with Malcolm Brogdon just returning from a back injury.
Our algorithm projects Sabonis at 19.8 points on 7.6 made field goals and 4.6 free throws -- which would result in him hitting the over (17.5).
Jaylen Brown, Over 20.5 Points
Jaylen Brown scored 18 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in Boston's 100-99 loss to the Sacramento Kings eight days ago and gets a rematch tonight in Boston -- this time without Kemba Walker. As a result, Brown's scoring load should increase this week. Brown is averaging 24.0 points and 8.3 rebounds in his three home games this season, while the Celtics are 5-0 at home. He's scored 20 points or more in five of his last nine games. Brown had a double-double of 22 points and 10 rebounds in his last game, and I think the confidence will roll over tonight.
Our model projects Brown right near his season average of 18.6 points, which would result in him hitting the under. However, I like his scoring chances in their first game without Walker.
Vaughn Dalzell is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Vaughn Dalzell also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username vdalzell. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
