NBA Betting Odds Update: The Champs Are Here
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most in the month of November.
Teams that had strong months and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings.
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA Finals odds Title Odds: +500
numberFire Championship Probability: 19.0%
It should surprise exactly no one that the Milwaukee Bucks were the team whose odds rose the most during November.
Milwaukee went a cool 12-1 during the month, with their only loss coming on a last-second buzzer beat against the Utah Jazz. The Bucks didn't have the easiest of schedules either -- they beat the Raptors, Clippers, Pacers, and Jazz during that span. The Deer are first in the league in net rating, scoring, rebounding, and effective field goal percentage. They are also second in true shooting percentage, third in offensive and defensive rating, fourth in blocks, seventh in turnover percentage, and eighth in assists. On average, the Bucks outscored opponents by 13.1 in November -- 4.1 points better than the next closest team.
If the past month was any indication, Giannis Antetokounmpo is on pace to win his second consecutive MVP. The Greek Freak averaged 32.7 points, 13.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.6 steals on 56.2 percent shooting and a respectable 31 percent from downtown. Giannis recorded 19 straight double-doubles to begin the season, including 12 games with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds. He's on pace to become the first player in NBA history to average more than 30 points, 13 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in a season.
The Bucks have (arguably) the easiest path to the NBA Finals, and with the league's MVP playing at this level, they're as good a bet as any to win the title.
Philadelphia 76ers
NBA Finals odds Title Odds: +700
numberFire Championship Probability: 6.2%
One of the biggest fallers in our title odds during November were the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly's odds dropped from 10.7 percent at the start of the month to 6.2 percent as we take in December.
The 76ers started the season an impressive 5-0, including three victories away from home. Since then, Philadelphia is just 9-6, including road losses to the Suns, Magic, and Thunder. The Sixers have won three straight, though those wins came against the Kings, Pacers, and Knicks by an average of five points.
The Sixers find themselves outside the top 10 in net rating, scoring, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, assist-to-turnover ratio, effective field goal percentage, and true shooting percentage. Joel Embiid, Josh Richardson, and Tobias Harris are all averaging fewer points and rebounds than they did last season -- the same can be said for Ben Simmons, who is scoring four fewer points per game than he did last year.
Philadelphia is undefeated at home, but they haven't played a true contender there since they beat the Celtics there in October. December brings home bouts with the Jazz, Raptors, Nuggets, Mavericks, and Bucks -- it'll be an uphill battle for them to remain unbeaten at home.
All that said, Philly is one of (maybe) four teams with a legitimate shot at coming out of the East. At +700, they're worth a flyer.
Toronto Raptors
NBA Finals odds Title Odds: +4200
numberFire Championship Probability: 4.0%
It's weird to see the reigning champs with such low odds, but that's life without Kawhi Leonard.
While the Toronto Raptors were expected to compete for a playoff spot this season, few (if any) projected them to play such a high caliber of basketball. Toronto came into November with title odds of 1.6 percent, but those have more than doubled over the last month. At 15-4, the Raptors are second in the East behind only the Bucks.
Toronto's net rating of 8.8 is second in the league, trailing only Milwaukee's 10.3. The champs lead the league as the only team shooting above 40 percent from three. They are also second in defensive efficiency, fourth in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, and sixth in assist ratio.
Pascal Siakam has taken the step into the tier of elite players in the league. The 25-year-old is averaging 25.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists on 47/39/81 shooting lines. Siakam is also eighth in defensive win shares.
Barring a significant trade, it's hard to imagine the Raptors winning their second consecutive title. Though, at +4200, they do have the best odds of any true contender.
