NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 2/24/20

Vaughn Dalzell  —  @VaughnDalzell Feb 24th, 2020
Will Joel Embiid hit the over on his points prop without Ben Simmons? Which other props should you take a look at tonight?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash), to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

While you can use those odds in fantasy, you can also utilize our fantasy projections and a variety of other tools to help make money betting everyday player props.

For the purposes of this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint three spots where value can be had on a player's stat line, scoring, or even shot type.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Over 30.5 Points

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player besides James Harden to average 30 points per game this season, and what better team to keep that trend going against than the Washington Wizards.

The Bucks are in DC for a showdown with the Wizards, who are on the second night of a back-to-back after losing to the Chicago Bulls. We saw Bradley Beal go for 53 points in Chicago, and it might be Giannis' turn to go for 50. The Bucks are averaging the most points per game in the league over the last 10 games (123.7), and the Wizards rank 24th over that span, allowing 116.3 per game over their last 10.

Milwaukee also leads the league in pace (107.2), and Washington isn't far behind at fifth(105.6). We could see the Bucks have one of their highest scoring games of the season again after a 151-131 win versus the Wizards earlier in the year. Giannis sat out that night, so this marks the first meeting between Giannis and the Wizards. Giannis dominated Washington last season, scoring 43 points at home and 37 in Washington. He averaged 26.8 points per game in three meetings with Washington in 2017-18.

numberFIre's model projects Giannis to record 29.5 points versus the Wizards, but I'll take the extra bucket considering the Wizards allow the second-most points to small forwards per game (22.91).

James Harden, Over 31.5 Points

Harden has been on fire for the Houston Rockets, and they've been looking fluent offensively with all the new additions. The Rockets welcome the New York Knicks to town in what should be a blowout. Harden has been on another planet, averaging 35.2 points on the season, and he's scored 40 points or more in three of his last four home contests.

Over his last 10 games overall, Harden has averaged 31.6 points, and he dominates Eastern Conference opponents. Harden has scored 39 points or more in eight straight games versus the opposing conference, with five happening in Houston. He's surpassed 40 points in seven of those eight games and scored over 50 in twice. He leads the NBA in points while maintaining the second-highest Player Efficiency Rating (29.37) and the third-highest usage rating (35.9%).

The Knicks are 17th against shooting guards, allowing 22.76 points per game, and don't forget Harden had his career-high of 61 points versus the Knicks in Madison Square Garden last season. numberFire's model projects Harden to total 33.8 points tonight, hitting the over.

Joel Embiid, Over 28.5 Points

Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers will be without Ben Simmons on Monday, and the 76ers star will be asked to carry the load.

The hot Atlanta Hawks are in town, and Embiid has already faced them twice, finding success against one of the NBA's worst defensive units. Against Atlanta, Embiid is averaging 28.5 points in two games, and he will have to surpass that total tonight.

The Hawks allow the second-most points in the paint (53.7), and that's just the start of their defensive woes. They rank 29th versus centers, allowing 23.64 points and 1.4 made three-pointers per game, and they also give up 15.68 rebounds per game, which ranks 22nd.

The Hawks also lead the league in fouls per game (23.2), something that Embiid will surely take advantage of. Embiid has reached the free-throw line 26 times over his last two games, and he's averaged 8.5 free throws versus Atlanta on the season.

In his two games after the All-Star break, he's averaged 28 points per game, and over his last three home games versus Eastern Conference opponents, he's scored 28 or more points in all three. Embiid hasn't met the Hawks at home this season, but without Simmons in the lineup, he could have another highlight-reel night offensively.

numberFire's model pegs Embiid for 28.3 points tonight, and considering how desperate the 76ers are to get a win without Simmons, Embiid is a solid option for the over moving forward.