NBA Odds Update: Are the Clippers in Trouble?
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. Here's a look at three of the teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last couple of weeks.
Toronto Raptors
FanDuel Title Odds: +2400
numberFire Champs Probability: 9.4%
One percent. No, I didn't suddenly turn into Bernie Sanders. I'm referring to the Championship Probability our models gave the Toronto Raptors to start the season.
In all fairness, when you lose Kawhi Leonard -- a top-five robot player in the world -- you'd expect your title odds to nosedive. Yet, through 57 games, the Raptors incredibly have a better record than they did in 2018-19. All of this gives me a sneaking suspicion that Nick Nurse is a very good head coach. I know what you're thinking, "that is straight-up brilliant hard-hitting analysis". To that I say, yes, yes it is.
At the beginning of February, NBA Finals odds had Toronto's title odds at 36/1, those odds are now down to 24/1 and shrinking fast. Winning 17 of 18 games probably had something to do with it. Again, hard-hitting analysis.
Impressively, the Raptors currently have the second-best net rating in the league. Toronto is also top-eight in three-point percentage, effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, assist percentage, and steals.
At +2400, there are seven teams with better title odds than "We The North" (get a better slogan) -- which makes the Raps a solid value, still.
Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Title Odds: +300
numberFire Champs Probability: 4.4%
Here's a fun fact: the Los Angeles Clippers have lost to the 23-33 Sacramento Kings twice in their last nine games...by an average of 15 points...at home.
The Clippers' inconsistencies don't end there. Doc Rivers' squad has lost four of their last five, and since mid-December, they've been defeated by the 16-39 Minnesota Timberwolves, 17-41 Atlanta Hawks, and 20-38 Chicago Bulls.
Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Landry Shamet. That's the core of a superteam, not a team that looks ordinary and uninspiring every other day. Nor is it the core of a team that should be just a game out of the fifth seed in their conference.
Right now, the Western Conference looks like it has five or six teams that could legitimately take the Clippers head-on. It might be time for this team to stop managing loads and start finding an identity.
At 3/1, you're not getting any value for their recent poor play.
Dallas Mavericks
FanDuel Title Odds: +3000
numberFire Champs Probability: 4.2%
Speaking of Western Conference squads that might be in trouble, allow me to introduce you to the Dallas Mavericks.
When they're not busy challenging the outcome of games, the Mavericks have been busy playing not-so-great basketball. Since starting the season 16-6, Dallas has gone just 18-17 -- not exactly an indicator of a title contender.
The league will almost assuredly fine Mark Cuban for roasting the league's officiating, and then grilling them, and then frying them, and then carving them up -- but don't let that distract you from the fact that he's right. The league's officiating has been a steaming hot pile of shi garbage for as long as I can remember, and they've done next to nothing about it.
Now, where was I? Ah, back to the Mavericks' odds. Dallas still has the fifth-best net rating in the league, and at 30/1, a whopping 10 teams have smaller odds than them. That said, it's hard to envision them winning anything given their mediocre play.
