NBA Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/15/20
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our models as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Nuggets +7.5: 3-Star Rating out of 5
Can another California team who has been lauded as title contenders blow a 3-1 series lead? We'll find out tonight when the Los Angeles Clippers take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals.
The Clippers looked like they were well on their way to forcing an all Los Angeles conference finals matchup with an 11-point win last Wednesday that put the Nuggets on their heels. Denver dug in, however, reeling off wins of 6 and 13 points, the latter being more impressive than it sounds given that they were down 68-49 at one point. The Clippers scored just 35 points in the second half on Sunday.
Underdogs in Game 7 over the last three seasons have gone 6-4 against the spread (ATS). They've gone 4-1 ATS in those games as underdogs of more than five points. Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in Games 6 or 7 in this year's playoffs.
The Clippers are 5-7 ATS in games with a total set below 220 points. They are 3-6 ATS as favorites in those games. They are 1-5 ATS when they've been favored by more than five points in those contests. Tonight is their first game with a total set below 210 points.
numberFire's models do project the Clippers to come out with the W this evening. That said, they're projected to win by just 3.0 points. We give the Nuggets a 63.9% chance of covering the 7.5-point spread. With an expected return of $122 for every $100 laid, we mark the bet as a three-star play.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics
Celtics Moneyline (-124): 2-Star Rating out of 5
If you were expecting to see an Eastern Conference final with a team led by Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kyle Lowry, I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad news. The number one- and two-seed Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors could not hold a candle to the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics, leading to a matchup between the Erik Spoelstra and Brad Stevens-led teams.
The teams have played each other three times this season and seven over the past two, with the Celtics going 5-2 in that span.They've won all three games as the home team, and they are the "home" team tonight, though I of course use that term very loosely.
Boston has gone a perfect 7-0 this season as favorites with a total set below 210 points, as is the case tonight. That includes a 19-point win over Miami back in December.
Game 1 has been a boon to the Celtics of late; they've gone 8-2 in their past 10 series openers, outscoring their opponents by an average of 10.0 points. In games after they and their opponents have combined for fewer than 200 points, the Celtics have gone 3-1. They've gone 10-3 in those games dating back to last year.
Our models project the Celtics to win by 3.0 points tonight. We give them a 61.2% chance of winning and mark the moneyline bet as a two-star play.
