NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Helper: NBA Finals Game 4

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Oct 6th, 2020
Is fading Jimmy Butler the correct move for Game 4 lineup construction?

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach -- and that's especially the case now.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's take a look at who you should target in Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat, which locks at 9:00pm.

MVP Considerations

For the Heat, Bam Adebayo ($13,000) has been upgraded to questionable, while Goran Dragic remains doubtful.

Anthony Davis ($15,000), LeBron James ($16.000), Jimmy Butler ($14,000), and Bam are the only four players with a ceiling projection greater than 50 FanDuel points. The next closest player is well below 40.0, so we'll focus on those four for now.

We'll start the MVP section with AD. Coming off a 26.5-fantasy point dud, Davis could see lower rostership in the top spots. This postseason, he had scored fewer than 50.0 FanDuel points four times -- he bounced back with performances of 61.8, 52.0, 50.5, and 60.3 in the games following those "duds."

Meanwhile, LeBron scored "just" 47.0 FanDuel points in Game 3. It was the sixth time he failed to record at least 50.0 FanDuel points in a game this postseason -- in the previous five instances, he followed it up with performances of 62.4, 65.7, 45.2, 64.5, and 73.2. I'm rostering LeBron in one of the top two spots. No need to be contrarian here.

Butler's outlook could take a hit if Bam were to return. In the bubble, Butler's seen a 1.9% usage drop with Bam on the court. Game 3 was the sixth time Butler recorded 48.0 or more FanDuel points this postseason -- in the five games following those performances, Butler's recorded 36.4, 17.6, 32.6, 29.0, and Game 3's 79.7.

As for Bam, he had three games with 54.4 or more FanDuel points in his eight outings prior to his injury. However, the Lakers have been the stingiest team against opposing centers all season.

Utility Considerations

If Bam's inactive, we'll look towards Kelly Olynyk ($10,000), even in the 1.2X Pro spot. Olynyk's totaled 35.8 and 32.9 FanDuel points in his last two -- that's great production for his salary.

Rajon Rondo ($9,500) could be worth a look in that third spot as well. In the last two games, Rondo has dropped 34.8 and 25.1 FanDuel points -- he's had four games with 34-plus fantasy points this postseason.

Neither of those players will allow you to roster LeBron, AD, and either Bam or Butler. Duncan Robinson ($8,500) could help in that regard. Robinson posted 32.5 FanDuel points in Game 3 over 39 minutes of action. That's valuable production at a salary of $8,500. Jae Crowder ($9,000) doesn't have that ceiling, though he's got one of the highest floors at $9.0K or less. Crowder's posted at least 20.4 FanDuel points in 12 of his last 13.

Markieff Morris ($7,000) is a low-salaried filler with some upside. After totaling 15.0 FanDuel points in Game 2, Morris recorded 28.2 in Game 3. Kyle Kuzma ($7,000) doesn't quite have that upside, though he's recorded 21.6 and 17.6 in two of the three games this series. Finally, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($9,000) has the highest minutes floor of any player in his salary range. KCP's 13.1-point dud in Game 3 should result in lower Game 4 rostership.