NBA Betting Guide: Sunday 1/3/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Over 215.5: 5-Star Rating out of 5
The Phoenix Suns went a perfect 8-0 in the Orlando bubble last year. For those wondering if it was just a fluke, the Suns' 5-1 start to the 2020-21 season provides evidence to the contrary. The Suns have the best record in the Western Conference, and they're winning with something they haven't been known for in a while: defense.
The Suns are giving up just 98.7 points per game, the fewest in the league. They have the second-best defensive efficiency, and they're holding opponents to just 30.0% from beyond the arc, the third-best mark in the league. That defensive prowess is going to be tested tonight, however, when they take on the 4-2 Los Angeles Clippers.
The Clippers have the fifth-highest offensive rating thus far, a number that would look even better had they not disappeared on December 27th and scored just 73 points in a 51-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Such low efforts have rarely been an issue when they've taken on the Suns, however.
Over the past two seasons, the Clippers have scored at least 115 points in seven of their eight games against the Suns. The teams have combined to average 228.2 points in those contests, scoring more than 215.5 points in six of those games.
numberFire's model projects a high-scoring affair between these two Western Conference rivals, having them combine for 228.7 points this evening. We give the over a 74.4% chance of hitting and mark the bet as as five-star play, the highest on the slate.
Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors
Blazers -5.0: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Blazers Moneyline (-220): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Portland Trail Blazers dominated the Golden State Warriors at the Chase Center on Friday night, winning by 25 points thanks in large part to a 34-point effort by Damian Lillard. The two teams will face off again tonight in the same venue, and our model is pointing to another Blazers win.
Golden State did win two of their first four games this season prior to their recent loss to the Blazers, something that they didn't achieve until the seventh game of the season last year. Those two wins, however, have come against the combined 3-8 records of the Detroit Pistons and Chicago Bulls, teams that are 28th and 30th, respectively, in our team rankings.
The Warriors did get Draymond Green back on Friday night after a four-game absence, but he didn't do much to help, scoring no points and committing four fouls in just 18 minutes. Steve Kerr didn't beat around the bush, noting that Green "looked like a guy who missed trading camp."
The Blazers have now won three in a row against the Warriors, scoring at least 122 points in each game. They are 5.0-point favorites this evening. Away favorites have gone 9-5 straight up (SU) and 7-6-1 against the spread this season. Favorites on one day of rest have won 67.9% of their games this season. Portland has gone 9-4 SU as away favorites since last season.
Our model projects the Blazers to win by 5.7 points tonight, moving to 4-2 on the season. We give them a 70.3% chance of winning and a 52.8% chance of covering the 5.0-point spread. We mark both bets as one-star plays.
