3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 1/8/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jayson Tatum Over 8.5 Rebounds (-114)
There's some solid value here for Jayson Tatum if COVID tracing holds a few Celtics out. Right now, Grant Williams, Robert Williams, and Tristan Thompson are all facing seven-day quarantines. Jeff Teague is already questionable with an injury, and all of that points to more usage for Tatum. Already at a 30.22% usage rate for the season, Tatum has scored at will but has fallen off recently in rebounding. That could change tonight.
Tatum has only gone over this once in the past three games, but the Celtics have also played four straight road games and return home for the first time since December 30. At home, Tatum has posted four, seven, and eight rebounds for 6.3 per game. He did this in six-of-eight postseason playoff games, and if Thompson is out, I like him to hit the boards like that Tatum.
Our model pegs him at 7.5 tonight pending lineups, but that's sure to skyrocket.
Nikola Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds (-108)
Nikola Vucevic came alive for three straight games, but against Andre Drummond and the Cleveland Cavaliers, his rebound totals dropped from 10, 10, and 13 to just 7 and 8.
Against the Houston Rockets, Vucevic has a favorable matchup, especially if Christian Wood is out with a knee injury. Vucevic would likely face DeMarcus Cousins and P.J. Tucker for most of the night. It sounds like a potential feast, or at least a double-double, something he's done five-of-eight games this season.
In Vucevic's last meeting with Houston, he recorded 16 points and 16 rebounds, and before that, it was 19 points and 17 rebounds. In his last five games overall versus Houston, he's grabbed 11 or more rebounds in four. He's also scored double-digits scoring every time, making his PR or PRA props favorable looks, as well. His 11.2 career rebounds per game versus the Rockets is his sixth-highest versus any opponent, and in his last five meetings, Vucevic's averaging 14.6 boards.
Our model predicts Vucevic to have 10.4 rebounds -- right on the number. Look for lineup news with Christian Wood for Houston. This line should move to worse odds or 11.5 if Wood is out.
Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds (-110)
Deandre Ayton is fresh off a season-high of 16 rebounds versus the Toronto Raptors and his fourth double-double of the season. He's averaging 11.8 rebounds per game -- tied for eighth overall -- and has totaled 11 or more in three-of-four road games this year. Oddly enough, Ayton's averaging a slightly higher rebound total on the road (11.8) than at home (11.0), but the home average was at 9.3 per game before his 16-rebound performance.
The Detroit Pistons don't have the interior to stop Ayton, and he's ranked 15th in rebounding percentage (18.5) to start the season, right behind Nikola Jokic (18.7) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (19.3). Ayton averaged 11.5 rebounds per game last season, and once he finds his groove, the 9.5 and 10.5 numbers we've seen to start the season will be gone. The Phoenix Suns have some tough interior matchups coming up, so expect Ayton to run up his numbers versus a bad Pistons team before competition picks back up.
Our model predicts 10.5 rebounds for Ayton, and if the Suns don't win by 20-plus, Ayton should see this over hit. In the Suns' one blowout win this season, a 111-86 win over the New Orleans Pelicans, Ayton recorded 12 rebounds versus Steven Adams.
