3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/13/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Khris Middleton Over 6.5 Rebounds (+100)
In two meetings with the Detroit Pistons this season, MIddleton's totaled 5 and 9 rebounds. Over the last four games, the Pistons are shooting at a league-low 39.5% from the field and 32.5% from three, good enough for 26th.
There should be plenty of boards to go around, and with Giannis simply so hard to trust right now, Middleton is the better play. Detroit ranks middle of the pack with 8.3 rebounds allowed per game to small forwards (18th) and 12.18 to power forwards (27th).
Our model projects Middleton to grab 7.0 rebounds in 38.6 minutes tonight.
Luka Doncic Under 8.5 Rebounds (-105)
With the return of Kristaps Porzingis, it looks like time to fade Luka Doncic on the boards. While he's been phenomenal over the last four games, recording nine or more to feed into two double-doubles and one triple-double, the Charlotte Hornets and Porzingis can take away his opportunities. The Hornets rank 15th in rebounds allowed to points guards per game (6.58) and have allowed 43.7 team rebounds per game over their last three, which is 14th in the league.
Doncic went under this total in three of his first four games this season before hitting the over in four straight. Doncic has three career games versus the Hornets and recorded 10 or more rebounds in all three -- but the catch is that they were all without Porzingis.
In his first game versus Charlotte alongside Porzingis, I like Doncic to have a big game but not record more than nine rebounds. The Hornets have won four straight games, and during that span, LaMelo Ball is averaging 11.0 rebounds, and five other Hornets are averaging 4.3 or more boards per game. There should be plenty of players fighting for boards in this matchup, and I'm expecting Doncic to have more assists than boards.
D'Angelo Russell Over 20.5 Points (-112)
D'Angelo Russell will be playing his fourth game alongside Karl-Anthony Towns for the season, and they've been successful together. Russell has scored 16, 18, and 25 points in three games with Towns, going 23-of-59 (38.9%) from the field.
The Memphis Grizzlies allow the fifth-most points per game to point guards (26.51) and the fewest to shooting guards (14.30). Looking at the matchup, the under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Factor in that Memphis has averaged 100.1 points per game over the last six and held four of their previous six opponents to 94 or fewer points, and this game could be low-scoring.
The Minnesota Timberwolves should ideally surpass 100 points tonight, and Russell would need to account for 20 percent or so to hit the over. In Russell's first two games with Towns, he accounted for 16.2% and 21.6%, but then had a season-low 13.1% versus the Spurs in the last outing. That could be due to Beasley's breakout game, but Russell attempted 22 shots in that matchup, making seven (31.8%).
With Russell trying 16 or more field goals in all three games and 21 or more in two with Towns, it's hard to picture that he won't get the volume to go over 20 points. Plus, with Memphis' horrid defense versus point guards, it's hard not to back Russell tonight. If only one or two players get going in this game, Russell and Towns have the best chance in doing so.