NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Thursday 1/14/21

Christian Wood should be an elite play tonight with James Harden gone and John Wall out for the Houston Rockets. Who else should you target on Thursday's five-game slate?

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.

Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's five-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Point Guard

Among others, the Miami Heat will be down Goran Dragic, Avery Bradley, Kendrick Nunn, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo for tonight's matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers -- that means there should be plenty of value available from the rest of their roster. That value starts with Gabe Vincent ($4,500), who's projected to be the top value at the position, per our models. Vincent dropped 34.9 FanDuel points in 36.4 minutes on Tuesday, and he's bound to see that kind of a role again tonight. Vincent is essentially a free square at this salary.

On the more expensive side of things, we can look at Stephen Curry ($9,600) against the Denver Nuggets. On the season, Denver is surrendering the second-most FanDuel points per game to opposing point guards, according to FantasyPros. Steph has had more than 50 fantasy points four times in his last nine outings, and he'd need 47 to achieve our baseline value figure of 5.0. According to Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet, which adjusts of competition, each of Damian Lillard ($9,200), Ben Simmons ($8,200), LaMelo Ball ($7,800), and Kyle Lowry ($7,200) have less-than-ideal matchups, though our algorithm does have Ball returning better than a 5.0 value figure. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600) has one of the best matchups on the slate and the Indiana Pacers will be down recently-traded Victor Oladipo. The Portland Trail Blazers cede the seventh-most fantasy points to the position, and Brogdon has showcased his 50-fantasy-point upside numerous times this season.

Back on the value side of things, we can look to T.J. McConnell ($3,900) if he's active, and to Edmond Sumner ($3,500) if McConnell can't go. McConnell had recorded 22.8 and 21.1 fantasy points in the two games prior to his recent absence, and would only need 19.5 to return a baseline value. He could see a slightly larger role than usual with Oladipo no longer on the team.

Shooting Guard

Given all of Miami's inactive tonight, Tyler Herro ($6,500) is pretty darn close to a must-play. Herro has posted 41.8 and 45.4 FanDuel points in his last two games on usage rates of 29.2% and 37.5%, respectively -- both season-highs. He should easily be able to give us an excellent value figure tonight. Meanwhile, with James Harden now a member of the Brooklyn Nets and the Houston Rockets will also be without John Wall, Danuel House Jr., and (possibly) Eric Gordon -- that means that any of Ben McLemore ($3,700), Sterling Brown ($3,800), and David Nwaba ($4,800) could be excellent value plays. In 56 minutes without Harden and Wall on the court this season, Brown has seen a bump of 0.27 FanDuel points per minute. He and McLemore are our model's top-two projected values at shooting guard. In fact, McLemore is numberFire's second-best projected value on the entire slate.

Devonte' Graham ($5,900) is facing a Toronto Raptors team that is fourth-most generous to shooting guards this season -- as a result, our algorithm has him as the third-best projected value at the position. Graham has trumped 35 FanDuel points in three of his last four outings, and he'd only need 29.5 to achieve a 5.0 value figure. On the more expensive side, our model is a fan of DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), who has been cleared and will be active tonight after missing one game due to personal reasons. DeRozan needs just 40.5 fantasy points to reach our baseline value, and he's eclipsed that with ease in six of his nine contests this season. His opponent, the Rockets, cede the fifth-most fantasy points to shooting guards on the year.

When adjusted for competition, the Golden State Warriors rank dead last against shooting guards, according to Gdula. That brings Gary Harris ($4,600) into play. Harris missed Denver's last game due to personal reasons and is officially questionable, but if he's active, he could return solid value. Harris had recorded exactly 27.1 FanDuel points in consecutive games prior to his one-game absence, and he would only need 23 for a 5.0 value figure. If Harris can't go, P.J. Dozier ($3,900) is a solid pivot.

Small Forward

Interestingly, our model's top-projected scorer at small forward has just the ninth-highest salary at the position -- Eric Gordon ($5,200). Assuming he's active, Gordon should have a huge role for the Rockets, who will be without Harden and Wall. In the two games this season in which he's seen a usage rate higher than 25%, Gordon has posted 36.6 and 34 fantasy points. Our model has him projected for 35.2. It doesn't hurt that the San Antonio Spurs are surrendering the most fantasy points to small forwards on the season.

Speaking of value, Precious Achiuwa ($4,100) doesn't find himself too far behind Gordon in terms of a projected value figure. On Tuesday, Achiuwa managed 37.1 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes, and there's no reason to think that his role will shrink tonight. His teammate, Duncan Robinson ($4,900), recorded 33.9 fantasy points in that game in a whopping 45.7 minutes of action, and he too should be able to return good value.

If you want to dust off your wallet at small forward (I'm not sure why you would), Gordon Hayward ($7,800) is likely your best option. Hayward has showcased significant upside this season, and he faces a Toronto team that's allowing the third-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.

Power Forward

Now, this is a position where you're going to want to spend a healthy chunk of cash. Christian Wood ($8,100) is in line for a sizable workload sans Wall and Harden. Wood has recorded at least 47.9 FanDuel points in four of his eight games this season, and there's no reason to think that he can't reach that again tonight. Wood is our model's second-highest projected scorer on the entire slate. He's going up against a Spurs team that's allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) and Chris Boucher ($7,800) are two other options you can spend big on. With Oladipo and T.J. Warren off the court, Sabonis sees a 4.4% bump in usage rate while scoring an additional 0.11 fantasy points per minute. Our model has him projected for 46 fantasy points tonight. Meanwhile, Boucher squares off against a Charlotte team that's allowing the most fantasy points to the power forward position on the young season. Boucher has had more than 40 FanDuel points in three consecutive outings, and tonight could very well make that four.

If you want to conserve cap, Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) just so happens to be our model's third-best projected value on the entire slate. Olynyk has totaled 36.7 and 36.6 fantasy points in his last two efforts, and he should see north of 40 minutes tonight with a chunk of Miami's roster out.

Center

We've got Nikola Jokic ($11,200) and Joel Embiid ($10,200) on the same slate, and chances are, you're going to want to pony up for one of them. Jokic has already topped 60 FanDuel points five times this season, and there aren't many on this slate who can match that kind of consistent upside. According to Gdula, Golden State ranks 10th-worst against centers when adjusted for competition. One of the few who can match the Serbian's upside is Embiid, who is fresh off a game two days ago in which he dropped 84.2 fantasy points against this very team. Wowza. Embiid's now eclipsed 60 in three of his last eight games, and he shouldn't have much trouble dismantling Miami's defense again.

Our model projects Bismack Biyombo ($4,200) and Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400) to be the top-two values at the position, but given tonight's limited slate, constructing a roster without either Jokic or Embiid can be extremely risky.