3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 1/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projectionsand a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Pascal Siakam Over 33.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-132)
Pascal Siakam has now posted five straight games of at least 31 combined points, rebounds, and assists. This line opened at 31.5 and was quickly bet to 33.5 as bettors are backing Spicy P to keep the good times rolling versus the Charlotte Hornets.
Siakam has a great opportunity based on the Hornets playing the second night of a back-to-back. The Hornets also allow the second-most points per game to power forwards (24.84), the ninth-most rebounds (11.43), and third-most assists (4.92). In his two meetings with Charlotte last year, he posted 33 and 37 combined points, boards and dimes. This year's Raptors team needs a little more help, and his 26.35% usage rate over the last five games is a reminder of his new role.
Siakam has averaged 23.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game over his last five games (40.2 combined), shattering this 33.5 line. According to our algorithm, Siakam is projected to record 20.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, but I'm backing him to get to the over thanks to the matchup and his red-hot run.
Ben Simmons Over 14.5 Points (-112)
Ben Simmons had a season-low five points in his last outing versus the Miami Heat, attempting only two shots in 32 minutes after dealing with foul trouble all night. On the season, Simmons has, at times, flourished in his semi-new role with the team and is averaging 12.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. Simmons scored 15 or more points in three straight outings to start the season before cooling off.
Before his five-point outing, Simmons had three-straight games of 15 or more points versus the Heat. He shot 50% or better from the field against Miami in all three meetings a season ago, and the Heat have surrendered 124 and 137 points in their last two games.
Playing against what amounts to Miami's B team, Simmons can get to the over here.
Steph Curry Over 28.5 Points (-106)
Stephen Curry has put up two duds in a row. It's rare that Steph has two clunkers in back-to-back games. He can't possibly be off again -- right?
Our model likes him to bounce back as we have him projected for 28.0 points in 34 minutes. But he's played at least 34 in seven of his last eight games, so I think he can get to the over here if he sees the same kind of run. Right now, Curry is scoring 0.81 points per minute, and before his two-game slump, that number was 0.91.
In his four games versus the Denver Nuggets in 208-19 -- yes, a totally different team and situation -- he had two games of 30-plus points and two 17-point performances in double-digit blowout wins. Golden State likely isn't blowing out many teams this season, and the Nuggets are 5.0-point favorites tonight. A close game gives Curry a good shot at hitting the over.
After zero points, rebounds, or assists in the first quarter against the Indiana Pacers last time out, Curry may come out firing versus Denver in a game with a close spread and high total (225.0). This sets up as a bounce-back spot for Curry.
