3 NBA DraftKings Value Plays to Target on 1/20/21
A major key to success in daily fantasy basketball is uncovering potential value plays. If you're looking to roster a stud or two, you need to consider squeezing one of these lower-salaried options into your lineup.
Let's take a look at three players who can help fill in the gaps in your lineup on DraftKings tonight.
[Editor's note: The Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies game has been postponed.]
Carmelo Anthony, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
DraftKings Salary: $4,700
According to Online Sportsbook, the Portland Trail Blazers are favored by 1.5 points, and as such, carry a 111.5 implied total into Wednesday's showdown against the Memphis Grizzlies. They are appealing at first glance, but that appeal is even greater when you factor out the minutes and usage of C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, both of whom will be out for a time due to injuries.
Damian Lillard will do his best to pick up some slack, just as he's done in the past, but someone like Carmelo Anthony will need to be the second or third guy for Portland. And surprisingly, he has been to a point. According to NBA Wowy's on/off data, Melo possesses a 24.1% usage rate without McCollum and a 24.8% rate in the absence of both teammates, trailing only Lillard in his 128 minutes in that split.
If you're worried about the minutes, you shouldn't be. While logging 88% of his minutes as a small-ball four, the long-time vet has played 24-plus minutes in seven games, as well as 28 and 26 in the last two alone. In a blowout loss to the San Antonio Spurs on Monday, he turned 13 shots into 14 points and 27.25 DK points. If he hits that number he'll return a valuable 5.8 points per $1,000 at this salary.
Anthony Edwards, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
DraftKings Salary: $4,500
The Minnesota Timberwolves are another team dealing with depth issues due to injuries -- particularly in the frontcourt. Because of COVID protocols, both Juan Hernangomez and Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out on Wednesday, leaving a plethora of minutes to go elsewhere. And given Anthony Edwards' versatility, he stands to benefit.
The promising rookie saw 30 minutes in Monday's game, during which he got up 16 shots, trailing only D'Angelo Russell among Minnesota players. It was his ninth game already with double-digit shots, and when he's done so he has averaged 15.9 points. In the subset of three games he has logged 30 or more minutes the 19-year-old is scoring 17.0 points and totaling 26.9 DK points with his contributions in other departments.
Tonight, Edwards has that kind of floor, but the upside for more is there. The Orlando Magic are 21st in the league in defensive rating, according to NBA.com, and rate 10th-worst at defending opposing threes, which is where Edwards has spent more than 60% of his minutes this season. He's an awesome tournament play on this loaded slate.
Edmond Sumner, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers
DraftKings Salary: $3,800
Edmond Sumner appears to be the victim of some recency bias in DK's salary model, but on this occasion, that mistake is in our favor. Although he has been held to 18.25 and 21.25 DK points in his last two games, Sumner has only played 20 and 21 minutes because of back-to-back blowouts (one a win and one a loss). When you factor that in he's about $500 lower than he probably should be given his opportunity.
Since the Indiana Pacers dealt Victor Oladipo in last week's three-team deal, they have learned that their addition, Caris LeVert (wishing him all the best), will be out indefinitely with a mass on his kidney. That has left a hole in the lineup for a combined effort in filling the team's two wing spots, and now Myles Turner has an injury that would cause Domantas Sabonis to play more at center than power forward. Justin Holiday is getting all the run he can across multiple slots, but he can only play one position and for so many minutes.
While we have word that Jeremy Lamb is questionable it's tough to see him getting all kinds of run in his first game in nearly a calendar year. Sumner should play closer to the 31 minutes he logged three games ago, and given his 0.86 DK points per-minute average he should be able to do enough against Dallas.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
