NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 1/27/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Andre Drummond Over 13.5 Rebounds (-130)
This is going to be a fun matchup. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons are two teams that have been smashing hits for bettors all season.
Andre Drummond has been a consistent player prop target all season, especially in the rebounding department. Drummond ranks second in the league with 14.6 boards per game, and he has posted 5, 16, and 17 in his last three games. The Pistons are an ideal team to go up against for rebounding props, allowing the fourth-most per game (16.64) to opposing centers.
Our model projects Drummond to hit 13.2 rebounds, but he had 16 in his first and only meeting versus Detroit. Drummond has recorded 14 rebounds or more in 8 of his last 10 games this season. Drummond has not played over 28 minutes in his last four games, but when he plays 30 or more, the big man has averaged 17.4 across four games this season, grabbing 14 or more in six-of-seven with one 13-rebound performance. I think Drummond plays 30 minutes in this matchup if he stays out of foul trouble.
Deandre Ayton Over 18.5 Points (-106)
Deandre Ayton has been on fire, recording 17, 18, 26, and 27 points over the last four games. His matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder is favorable, as they allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing centers (22.84). The Suns will be without Devin Booker for the second straight game, and in the one without him, Ayton scored 17 points. With Booker out for another game, expect Ayton to continue to take over scoring because of a need.
Chris Paul is another reliable option tonight, as the offense will run through both of them. Paul also faces his former Thunder team, so expect him to go a little harder.
Ayton's projected to score 18.1 points and 38.0 minutes versus the Thunder. For his career, he has recorded games of 10, 14, 16, 16, 16, and 21 points, with four-of-six coming against Steven Adams. Ayton will have a softer matchup with Isaiah Roby and Darius Bazley.
De'Aaron Fox Over 32.5 Points, Rebounds and Assist (-122)
De'Aaron Fox has been a solid PRA pick this season with a plethora of games above 30 PRA. In his previous three games, Fox has totaled 32, 36, and 60 PRA. For the season, Fox is averaging 21.8 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game (31.8 PRA).
Against the Orlando Magic, he has a favorable opportunity to keep this hot streak alive. Orlando surrenders the seventh-most points (25.46), the fifth-most assists (9.29), and the eighth-most rebounds (6.93) per game to point guards.
Not counting his previous bubble performance versus Orlando, Fox recorded 31 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds. The Magic's lineup of Cole Anthony, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross doesn't scream defense versus Fox. Our model predicts Fox to post 21.8 points, 6.3 assists and 3.6 rebounds (31.7 PRA), but given his recent play and matchup, I like this over to hit. He has hit 32 PRA in five of his last six games.
