NBA Betting Guide for 1/27/21: 3 Spreads Our Algorithm Likes for Tonight

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games virtually every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets

numberFire's algorithm views a lot of the best value to come from the earlier games on this 12-game night. That starts with a 7:00 tip between the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets.

Primarily, it identifies value on the under (220.5) and considers it a four-star wager out of five. The median projected total here is 107.9 to 102.9 in favor of the visiting Pacers. That's a combined point total of 210.8.

But there's also indications to like the Pacers outright. numberFire projects the Pacers to win this game 68.0% of the time, suggesting a moneyline equivalent of -213, but their moneyline is actually just -120 (which suggests Indiana is only 54.6% likely to win). We rate that as a three-star bet.

The Pacers' spread is -1.5, which our model recommends as a two-star wager out of five. Indiana rates out as 61.0% likely to cover that spread, per our model. The estimated net ratings here (+1.5 for the Pacers and -1.6 for the Hornets) imply a close game but still ultimately one that favors the Pacers.

The betting trends align here, as well: 66% of bets and 73% of the money is on the Pacers' moneyline, and 62% of the bets and 68% of the money are on the Pacers to cover.

Sacramento Kings at Orlando Magic

Here's another 7:00 pm game that our model shows value on.

Both the under (222.0) and the Orlando Magic moneyline (-120) are rated as three-star bets out of five, and additionally, the Magic to cover the 1.5-point spread is a two-star bet out of five.

The median projected total in this game is 213.1 (by way of a 108.8 to 104.3 win for the home favorites), which falls significantly short of the posted over/under. I've talked up a lot of over/unders to begin the season, and they were hitting at around a 56.0% clip for a few weeks. The results now are very close: just 50.6% of the games hit the under on the posted closing total from FanDuel Sportsbook. There's actually a discrepancy between tickets (57%) and money (69%) on the over, via oddsFire, so there's discord between the algorithm and the betting trends on the under.

Where there's agreement is on the spread and moneyline. oddsFire shows a majority of bets and money on the Magic moneyline but even more on the spread (67% and 71%, respectively).

Going back to our model, we can see a 59.7% likelihood that the Magic cover the 1.5-point spread, good for a projected return of 14.0%. Our model is keener on the Magic outright, which we see as 66.6% likely for a 21.1% return on investment.

Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat

This one is a bit later of a tip -- 7:30.

The reason it's relevant is that smart money has already moved a lot of over/unders today, but there's one that has moved just marginally so far. The over/under for the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat game is down just a point from 220.5 to 219.5.

numberFire's algo views the under at 219.5 as a two-star wager (down from a three-star wager at 220.5), yet it's still showing as 60.4% likely to occur. The median projected total in this game is only 214.4, so while it's not as much leverage as as before, it's certainly giving us room.

The reason the line has moved is that 29% of the tickets are on the under, but 53% of the money is on the under. That's one of the four biggest discrepancies across any number -- total, spread, or moneyline -- on the board for tonight's 12-game slate.

There's a huge gap in estimated offensive efficiency between these two teams (the Nuggets are 4th [113.0] and the Heat are 23rd [105.1]). Both sit outside the top-20 in estimated defense. But these are also two below-average teams in estimated pace, and the Heat are not short on injuries.

For what it's worth, our algorithm actually much prefers the Heat +5.5, rating it as a four-star bet, and their moneyline (+188) is a three-star recommendation. There's just heavy action on the Nuggets to prevail, so we don't get the combination.